相关论文: A Taxonomy of Event-Linked Perpetual Futures: Vari…

We consider the possibility problem of determining if a document is a possible world of a probabilistic document, in the setting of probabilistic XML. This basic question is a special case of query answering or tree automata evaluation, but…

We study finite probability theory through a category of finite probability schemes and probability-preserving maps, called \emph{bundles}. A bundle simultaneously records a quotient of a sample space, an algebra of random variables, and…

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six…

We consider a continuous-time financial market with no arbitrage and no transactions costs. In this setting, we introduce two types of perpetual contracts, one in which the payoff to the long side is a fixed function of the underlyers and…

We develop a data-driven approach to the computation of a-posteriori feasibility certificates to the solution sets of variational inequalities affected by uncertainty. Specifically, we focus on instances of variational inequalities with a…

This study delves into the intricate realm of risk evaluation within the domain of specific financial derivatives, notably options. Unlike other financial instruments, like bonds, options are susceptible to broader risks. A distinctive…

This paper presents a unified framework for uncertainty propagation in dynamical systems involving hybrid aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The framework accommodates precise probabilistic, imprecise probabilistic, and non-probabilistic…

Tournament solutions provide methods for selecting the "best" alternatives from a tournament and have found applications in a wide range of areas. Previous work has shown that several well-known tournament solutions almost never rule out…

Online controlled experiments (A/B tests) are fundamental to data-driven decision-making in the digital economy. However, their real-world application is frequently compromised by two critical shortcomings: the use of statistically flawed…

In this paper, we present a probabilistic adaptation of an Assume/Guarantee contract formalism. For the sake of generality, we assume that the extended state machines used in the contracts and implementations define sets of runs on a given…

Recent advances in neural variational inference have spawned a renaissance in deep latent variable models. In this paper we introduce a generic variational inference framework for generative and conditional models of text. While traditional…

After a brief introduction to Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), indicator operator and conditional density operator (CDO), we investigate probability spaces associated with various quantum systems: system with one observable (discrete or…

Given an imprecise probabilistic model over a continuous space, computing lower/upper expectations is often computationally hard to achieve, even in simple cases. Because expectations are essential in decision making and risk analysis,…

Evaluating joint probabilities of potential outcomes and observed variables, and their linear combinations, is a fundamental challenge in causal inference. This paper addresses the bounding and identification of these probabilities in…

Complex engineered systems require coordinated design choices across heterogeneous components under multiple conflicting objectives and uncertain specifications. Monotone co-design provides a compositional framework for such problems by…

Formalisms for specifying statistical models, such as probabilistic-programming languages, typically consist of two components: a specification of a stochastic process (the prior), and a specification of observations that restrict the…

This paper introduces a framework for Chance-Constrained Optimization with Complex Variables, addressing complex linear programming for both individual and joint probabilistic constraints in the complex domain. We first analyze the 3CP…

We investigate the statistics of selected rare events in a (1+1)-dimensional (classical) stochastic growth model which describes the evolution of (quantum) random unitary circuits. In such classical formulation, particles are created and/or…

This paper develops a design-first econometric framework for event-study and difference-in-differences estimands under staggered adoption with heterogeneous effects, emphasising (i) exact probability limits for conventional two-way fixed…

Conditional risk minimization arises in high-stakes decisions where risk must be assessed in light of side information, such as stressed economic conditions, specific customer profiles, or other contextual covariates. Constructing reliable…