相关论文: Supercharging Bayesian Inference with Reliable AI-…

Contemporary deep learning based inpainting algorithms are mainly based on a hybrid dual stage training policy of supervised reconstruction loss followed by an unsupervised adversarial critic loss. However, there is a dearth of literature…

Successful deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) in various settings has led to numerous positive outcomes for individuals and society. However, AI systems have also been shown to harm parts of the population due to biased predictions.…

Science consists on conceiving hypotheses, confronting them with empirical evidence, and keeping only hypotheses which have not yet been falsified. Under deductive reasoning they are conceived in view of a theory and confronted with…

Imbalanced data, where the positive samples represent only a small proportion compared to the negative samples, makes it challenging for classification problems to balance the false positive and false negative rates. A common approach to…

We introduce a computational efficient data-driven framework suitable for quantifying the uncertainty in physical parameters and model formulation of computer models, represented by differential equations. We construct physics-informed…

Recursive Bayesian inference, in which posterior beliefs are updated in light of accumulating data, is a tool for implementing Bayesian models in applications with streaming and/or very large data sets. As the posterior of one iteration…

Doubly intractable problems occur when both the likelihood and the posterior are available only in unnormalised form, with computationally intractable normalisation constants. Bayesian inference then typically requires direct approximation…

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

Prediction-powered inference is a framework for performing valid statistical inference when an experimental dataset is supplemented with predictions from a machine-learning system. The framework yields simple algorithms for computing…

Reliable inference requires that artificial intelligence (AI) models provide trustworthy uncertainty estimates, not merely accurate predictions. Recent advances in Bayesian learning have made significant progress toward this goal, and…

Sensitivity analyses reveal the influence of various modeling choices on the outcomes of statistical analyses. While theoretically appealing, they are overwhelmingly inefficient for complex Bayesian models. In this work, we propose…

A growing body of research has explored how to support humans in making better use of AI-based decision support, including via training and onboarding. Existing research has focused on decision-making tasks where it is possible to evaluate…

When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

Variational methods that rely on a recognition network to approximate the posterior of directed graphical models offer better inference and learning than previous methods. Recent advances that exploit the capacity and flexibility in this…

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a method that improves statistical estimates based on limited human-labeled data. PPI achieves this by combining small amounts of human-labeled data with larger amounts of data labeled by a reasonably…

We study prediction of future outcomes with supervised models that use privileged information during learning. The privileged information comprises samples of time series observed between the baseline time of prediction and the future…

Missing time-series data is a prevalent problem in many prescriptive analytics models in operations management, healthcare and finance. Imputation methods for time-series data are usually applied to the full panel data with the purpose of…

What is the best way to exploit extra data -- be it unlabeled data from the same task, or labeled data from a related task -- to learn a given task? This paper formalizes the question using the theory of reference priors. Reference priors…

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model…

Introduction: Artificial intelligence (AI) is exhibiting tremendous potential to reduce the massive costs and long timescales of drug discovery. There are however important challenges currently limiting the impact and scope of AI models.…