相关论文: Supercharging Bayesian Inference with Reliable AI-…

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

Bayesian inference for inverse problems hinges critically on the choice of priors. In the absence of specific prior information, population-level distributions can serve as effective priors for parameters of interest. With the advent of…

In Bayesian analysis, prior elicitation, or the process of facilitating the expression of one's beliefs to inform statistical modeling, is an essential yet challenging step. Analysts often have beliefs about real-world variables and their…

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

Full Bayesian posteriors are rarely analytically tractable, which is why real-world Bayesian inference heavily relies on approximate techniques. Approximations generally differ from the true posterior and require diagnostic tools to assess…

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

We introduce and study the problem of detecting whether an agent is updating their prior beliefs given new evidence in an optimal way that is Bayesian, or whether they are biased towards their own prior. In our model, biased agents form…

Bayesian inference in generalized linear models requires a prior on the coefficient vector $\beta$. Practitioners naturally reason about response probabilities at specific covariate values, not about abstract log-odds parameters. We develop…

Through the use of carefully tailored convolutional neural network architectures, a deep image prior (DIP) can be used to obtain pre-images from latent representation encodings. Though DIP inversion has been known to be superior to…

Amortized simulator-based inference offers a powerful framework for tackling Bayesian inference in computational fields such as engineering or neuroscience, increasingly leveraging modern generative methods like diffusion models to map…

The fairness of a deep neural network is strongly affected by dataset bias and spurious correlations, both of which are usually present in modern feature-rich and complex visual datasets. Due to the difficulty and variability of the task,…

Bayesian inference provides a powerful tool for leveraging observational data to inform model predictions and uncertainties. However, when such data is limited, Bayesian inference may not adequately constrain uncertainty without the use of…

This report describes an application of artificial intelligence (AI) to the Bayesian analysis of glioblastoma survival data. It has been suggested that AI can be used to construct prior distributions for parameters in Bayesian models rather…

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

In high-dimensional problems, choosing a prior distribution such that the corresponding posterior has desirable practical and theoretical properties can be challenging. This begs the question: can the data be used to help choose a good…

Predictive models often reinforce biases which were originally embedded in their training data, through skewed decisions. In such cases, mitigation methods are critical to ensure that, regardless of the prevailing disparities, model…

Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex and large-scale predictive problems. The recent success of deep neural…

Time series prediction is a fundamental problem in scientific exploration and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have substantially bolstered its efficiency and accuracy. A well-established paradigm in AI-driven time series…

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian…