相关论文: Quantifying the Risk-Return Tradeoff in Forecastin…

While the {estimation} of risk is an important question in the daily business of banking and insurance, many existing plug-in estimation procedures suffer from an unnecessary bias. This often leads to the underestimation of risk and…

Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, data-driven problems, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative…

Many applied settings in empirical economics involve simultaneous estimation of a large number of parameters. In particular, applied economists are often interested in estimating the effects of many-valued treatments (like teacher effects…

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Systemic risk measures have been shown to be predictive of financial crises and declines in real activity. Thus, forecasting them is of major importance in finance and economics. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting method for…

We present a systematic trading framework that forecasts short-horizon market risk, identifies its underlying drivers, and generates alpha using a hybrid machine learning ensemble built to trade on the resulting signal. The framework…

We revisit the long-only trend-following strategy presented in A Century of Profitable Industry Trends by Zarattini and Antonacci, which achieved exceptional historical performance with an 18.2% annualized return and a Sharpe Ratio of 1.39.…

Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security…

Reward Models (RMs) are crucial for aligning language models with human preferences. Currently, the evaluation of RMs depends on measuring accuracy against a validation set of manually annotated preference data. Although this method is…

Despite breakthrough performance, modern learning models are known to be highly vulnerable to small adversarial perturbations in their inputs. While a wide variety of recent \emph{adversarial training} methods have been effective at…

With the growing adoption of machine learning (ML) systems in areas like law enforcement, criminal justice, finance, hiring, and admissions, it is increasingly critical to guarantee the fairness of decisions assisted by ML. In this paper,…

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is widely recognized as a central challenge in data mining and machine learning. LTSF has increasingly evolved into a benchmark-driven ''GAME,'' where models are ranked, compared, and declared…

We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error…

In machine learning (ML) applications, unfair predictions may discriminate against a minority group. Most existing approaches for fair machine learning (FML) treat fairness as a constraint or a penalization term in the optimization of a ML…

Machine learning predictions are typically interpreted as the sum of contributions of predictors. Yet, each out-of-sample prediction can also be expressed as a linear combination of in-sample values of the predicted variable, with weights…

A regression method for proportional, or fractional, data with mixed effects is outlined, designed for analysis of datasets in which the outcomes have substantial weight at the bounds. In such cases a normal approximation is particularly…

Prediction models are often employed in estimating parameters of optimization models. Despite the fact that in an end-to-end view, the real goal is to achieve good optimization performance, the prediction performance is measured on its own.…

We give a complete algorithm and source code for constructing what we refer to as heterotic risk models (for equities), which combine: i) granularity of an industry classification; ii) diagonality of the principal component factor…

We provide closed-form market equilibrium formula consolidating informational imperfections and investors beliefs. Based on Merton's model, we characterize the equilibrium expected excess returns vector with incomplete information. We then…

Fairness is an increasingly important factor in re-ranking tasks. Prior work has identified a trade-off between ranking accuracy and item fairness. However, the underlying mechanisms are still not fully understood. An analogy can be drawn…