相关论文: Tyche: One Step Flow for Efficient Probabilistic W…

We introduce a novel deep learning approach that harnesses the power of generative artificial intelligence to enhance the accuracy of contextual forecasting in sewerage systems. By developing a diffusion-based model that processes…

In its simplest form, the traffic flow prediction problem is restricted to predicting a single time-step into the future. Multi-step traffic flow prediction extends this set-up to the case where predicting multiple time-steps into the…

This paper presents VAEneu, an innovative autoregressive method for multistep ahead univariate probabilistic time series forecasting. We employ the conditional VAE framework and optimize the lower bound of the predictive distribution…

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial for real-world spatiotemporal systems, such as climate, energy, and urban environments, where quantifying uncertainty is essential for informed, risk-aware decision-making. While diffusion models have…

We propose a computationally efficient random walk on a convex body which rapidly mixes and closely tracks a time-varying log-concave distribution. We develop general theoretical guarantees on the required number of steps; this number can…

We present a data-driven approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting based on conditional normalizing flow (CNF). In contrast with the existing, this approach is distribution-free (as for non-parametric and quantile-based approaches)…

We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model that recursively predicts key atmospheric variables with six-hour time resolution. This model uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on a…

To address the uncertainty in outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, ensembles of forecasts are used. To obtain such an ensemble of forecasts the NWP model is run multiple times, each time with different formulations and/or…

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

In recent years traditional numerical methods for accurate weather prediction have been increasingly challenged by deep learning methods. Numerous historical datasets used for short and medium-range weather forecasts are typically organized…

Diffusion models have shown remarkable performance in generation problems over various domains including images, videos, text, and audio. A practical bottleneck of diffusion models is their sampling speed, due to the repeated evaluation of…

Offshore wind power (OWP) exhibits significant fluctuations under typhoon conditions, posing substantial challenges to the secure operation of power systems. Accurate forecasting of OWP is therefore essential. However, the inherent scarcity…

Critical decisions frequently rely on high-dimensional output from complex computer simulation models that show intricate cross-variable, spatial and temporal dependence structures, with weather and climate predictions being key examples.…

In the last decades wind power became the second largest energy source in the EU covering 16% of its electricity demand. However, due to its volatility, accurate short range wind power predictions are required for successful integration of…

The ability to generate a diverse and plausible distribution of future trajectories is a critical capability for autonomous vehicle planning systems. While recent generative models have shown promise, achieving high fidelity, computational…

The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…

Chaotic dynamical systems exhibit strong sensitivity to initial conditions and often contain unresolved multiscale processes, making deterministic forecasting fundamentally limited. Generative models offer an appealing alternative by…

Timely and reliable decision-making is vital for flood emergency response, yet it remains severely hindered by limited and imprecise situational awareness due to various budget and data accessibility constraints. Traditional flood…

While numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential for forecasting thunderstorms hours in advance, NWP uncertainty, which increases with lead time, limits the predictability of thunderstorm occurrence. This study investigates how…

Calculating transition probabilities between different states of multistable climate tipping systems is computationally challenging in high-dimensional models. Targeted algorithms, such as the Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS)…