相关论文: Tyche: One Step Flow for Efficient Probabilistic W…

We study the transport properties of nonautonomous chaotic dynamical systems over a finite time duration. We are particularly interested in those regions that remain coherent and relatively non-dispersive over finite periods of time,…

Diffusion and flow matching (FM) models have achieved remarkable progress in speech enhancement (SE), yet their dependence on multi-step generation is computationally expensive and vulnerable to discretization errors. Recent advances in…

Some real-world decision-making problems require making probabilistic forecasts over multiple steps at once. However, methods for probabilistic forecasting may fail to capture correlations in the underlying time-series that exist over long…

Forecast systems in science and technology are increasingly moving beyond point prediction toward methods that produce full predictive distributions of future outcomes y, conditional on high-dimensional and complex sequences of inputs x.…

Generative recommendation has emerged as a transformative paradigm for capturing the dynamic evolution of user intents in sequential recommendation. While flow-based methods improve the efficiency of diffusion models, they remain hindered…

Flow matching has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling and has been extended to probabilistic time series forecasting in latent spaces. However, the impact of the specific choice of probability path model on…

Sequential probabilistic inference from streaming observations requires modeling distributions over future trajectories as new observations arrive. Although diffusion and flow-matching models are effective at capturing high-dimensional,…

We propose a framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems based on generative modeling. Given observations of the system state over time, we formulate the forecasting problem as sampling from the conditional distribution of…

In weather forecasting, nonhomogeneous regression is used to statistically postprocess forecast ensembles in order to obtain calibrated predictive distributions. For wind speed forecasts, the regression model is given by a truncated normal…

Accurately predicting short-term traffic demand is critical for intelligent transportation systems. While deep learning models achieve strong performance under stationary conditions, their accuracy often degrades significantly when faced…

Human trajectory forecasting is important for intelligent multimedia systems operating in visually complex environments, such as autonomous driving and crowd surveillance. Although Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) has shown strong ability in…

Efficient and effective modeling of complex systems, incorporating cloud physics and precipitation, is essential for accurate climate modeling and forecasting. However, simulating these systems is computationally demanding since…

This study examines the predictability of artificial intelligence (AI) models for weather prediction. Using a simple deep-learning architecture based on convolutional long short-term memory and the ERA5 data for training, we show that…

With increasingly more computation being shifted to the edge of the network, monitoring of critical infrastructures, such as intermediate processing nodes in autonomous driving, is further complicated due to the typically…

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

Continuous-time event sequences, in which events occur at irregular intervals, are ubiquitous across a wide range of industrial and scientific domains. The contemporary modeling paradigm is to treat such data as realizations of a temporal…

Weather forecasting plays a vital role in today's society, from agriculture and logistics to predicting the output of renewable energies, and preparing for extreme weather events. Deep learning weather forecasting models trained with the…

Predicting how distributions over discrete variables vary over time is a common task in time series forecasting. But whereas most approaches focus on merely predicting the distribution at subsequent time steps, a crucial piece of…

Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is crucial for disaster preparedness and mitigation. While recent deep learning approaches have shown promise, existing methods often treat TC evolution as a series of independent frame-to-frame…