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The aim of the history matching method is to locate non-implausible regions of the parameter space of complex deterministic or stochastic models by matching model outputs with data. It does this via a series of waves where at each wave an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-05-11 Christopher C Drovandi , David J Nott , Daniel E Pagendam

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of Monte Carlo methods that are used to obtain random samples of a high dimensional random variable in a sequential fashion. Many problems encountered in applications often involve different…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-12-20 Chencheng Cai , Rong Chen , Ming Lin

We propose a history-driven target (HDT) framework in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to improve any random walk algorithm on discrete state spaces, such as general undirected graphs, for efficient sampling from target distribution…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-29 Jie Hu , Yi-Ting Ma , Do Young Eun

We propose a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for sampling from unnormalized target distributions based on a reverse denoising diffusion process. While recent diffusion-based samplers simulate the reverse diffusion using…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-11-06 Luhuan Wu , Yi Han , Christian A. Naesseth , John P. Cunningham

Random sampling of graph partitions under constraints has become a popular tool for evaluating legislative redistricting plans. Analysts detect partisan gerrymandering by comparing a proposed redistricting plan with an ensemble of sampled…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-11-09 Cory McCartan , Kosuke Imai

In the last decade, sequential Monte-Carlo methods (SMC) emerged as a key tool in computational statistics. These algorithms approximate a sequence of distributions by a sequence of weighted empirical measures associated to a weighted…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 R. Douc , France E. Moulines

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-30 James Cuin , Davide Carbone , Yanbo Tang , O. Deniz Akyildiz

We propose a variant of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), called the Repelling-Attracting Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RAHMC), for sampling from multimodal distributions. The key idea that underpins RAHMC is a departure from the conservative…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-03-08 Siddharth Vishwanath , Hyungsuk Tak

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-03-05 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Ajay Jasra

We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-07-10 Pierre Del Moral , Lawrence M. Murray

State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-01-07 Duo Xu

We consider random walks on discrete state spaces, such as general undirected graphs, where the random walkers are designed to approximate a target quantity over the network topology via sampling and neighborhood exploration in the form of…

概率论 · 数学 2024-01-30 Vishwaraj Doshi , Jie Hu , Do Young Eun

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-24 Minas Karamanis , Uroš Seljak

We investigate the stability of a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method applied to the problem of sampling from a target distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ for large $d$. It is well known that using a single importance sampling step one produces…

统计计算 · 统计学 2012-04-19 Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates language model inference by drafting tokens from a cheap proposal model and verifying them against an expensive target model via rejection sampling. Because rejection truncates the draft block at the…

We propose kernel sequential Monte Carlo (KSMC), a framework for sampling from static target densities. KSMC is a family of sequential Monte Carlo algorithms that are based on building emulator models of the current particle system in a…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-07-26 Ingmar Schuster , Heiko Strathmann , Brooks Paige , Dino Sejdinovic

This paper proposes a synergy of amortised and particle-based methods for sampling from distributions defined by unnormalised density functions. We state a connection between sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and neural sequential samplers…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-14 Sanghyeok Choi , Sarthak Mittal , Víctor Elvira , Jinkyoo Park , Nikolay Malkin

Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…

We present a new framework to derandomise certain Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. As in MCMC, we first reduce counting problems to sampling from a sequence of marginal distributions. For the latter task, we introduce a method…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2023-04-05 Weiming Feng , Heng Guo , Chunyang Wang , Jiaheng Wang , Yitong Yin

We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-05-04 Alex A. Gorodetsky , Gianluca Geraci , Mike Eldred , John D. Jakeman
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