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Causal modeling provides us with powerful counterfactual reasoning and interventional mechanism to generate predictions and reason under various what-if scenarios. However, causal discovery using observation data remains a nontrivial task…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-06 Jawad Chowdhury , Rezaur Rashid , Gabriel Terejanu

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Predictive models can fail to generalize from training to deployment environments because of dataset shift, posing a threat to model reliability and the safety of downstream decisions made in practice. Instead of using samples from the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-08-10 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Suchi Saria

Learning disentangled causal representations is a challenging problem that has gained significant attention recently due to its implications for extracting meaningful information for downstream tasks. In this work, we define a new notion of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-27 Aneesh Komanduri , Yongkai Wu , Feng Chen , Xintao Wu

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

Human beings learn causal models and constantly use them to transfer knowledge between similar environments. We use this intuition to design a transfer-learning framework using object-oriented representations to learn the causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-07-21 Purva Pruthi , Javier González , Xiaoyu Lu , Madalina Fiterau

Causal Structure Learning (CSL), also referred to as causal discovery, amounts to extracting causal relations among variables in data. CSL enables the estimation of causal effects from observational data alone, avoiding the need to perform…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-12 Fabrizio Russo , Francesca Toni

Counterfactuals -- expressing what might have been true under different circumstances -- have been widely applied in statistics and machine learning to help understand causal relationships. More recently, counterfactuals have begun to…

人机交互 · 计算机科学 2024-04-08 Arran Zeyu Wang , David Borland , David Gotz

Counterfactual inference is a useful tool for comparing outcomes of interventions on complex systems. It requires us to represent the system in form of a structural causal model, complete with a causal diagram, probabilistic assumptions on…

Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-13 Jikai Jin , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Sham Kakade , Hanlin Zhang

Causal structure learning has long been the central task of inferring causal insights from data. Despite the abundance of real-world processes exhibiting higher-order mechanisms, however, an explicit treatment of interactions in causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-07 James Enouen , Yujia Zheng , Ignavier Ng , Yan Liu , Kun Zhang

We introduce an approach to counterfactual inference based on merging information from multiple datasets. We consider a causal reformulation of the statistical marginal problem: given a collection of marginal structural causal models (SCMs)…

Learning causal relationships from empirical observations is a central task in scientific research. A common method is to employ structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. To…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-09-11 Grigor Keropyan , David Strieder , Mathias Drton

Identifying the underlying reason for a failing dynamic process or otherwise anomalous observation is a fundamental challenge, yet has numerous industrial applications. Identifying the failure-causing sub-system using causal inference, one…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-13 Juliane Weilbach , Sebastian Gerwinn , Karim Barsim , Martin Fränzle

Foundation models for structured time series data must contend with a fundamental challenge: observations often conflate the true underlying physical phenomena with systematic distortions introduced by measurement instruments. This…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-09 Jeroen Audenaert , Daniel Muthukrishna , Paul F. Gregory , David W. Hogg , V. Ashley Villar

Deep Q Networks (DQN) have shown remarkable success in various reinforcement learning tasks. However, their reliance on associative learning often leads to the acquisition of spurious correlations, hindering their problem-solving…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-10-28 Elouanes Khelifi , Amir Saki , Usef Faghihi

This paper proposes a debiased estimator for causal effects in high-dimensional generalized linear models with binary outcomes and general link functions. The estimator augments a regularized regression plug-in with weights computed from a…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-10-21 Jing Kong

Variational auto-encoders (VAEs) are a popular and powerful deep generative model. Previous works on VAEs have assumed a factorized likelihood model, whereby the output uncertainty of each pixel is assumed to be independent. This…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-14 Gara Dorta , Sara Vicente , Lourdes Agapito , Neill D. F. Campbell , Ivor Simpson

Deep learning has led to tremendous success in computer vision, largely due to Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). However, CNNs have been shown to be vulnerable to crafted adversarial perturbations. This vulnerability of adversarial…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-21 Hichem Debbi

Causal models bring many benefits to decision-making systems (or agents) by making them interpretable, sample-efficient, and robust to changes in the input distribution. However, spurious correlations can lead to wrong causal models and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-12-09 Sergei Volodin , Nevan Wichers , Jeremy Nixon