相关论文: Gray Swan Factory: Making Extreme Events from Ordi…

Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and…

Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI weather models and long-term climate emulators. An important open question is whether AI models…

Identifying tropical cyclones that generate destructive storm tides for risk assessment, such as from large downscaled storm catalogs for climate studies, is often intractable because it entails many expensive Monte Carlo hydrodynamic…

To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained…

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

The generation of synthetic tropical cyclone(TC) tracks for risk assessment is a critical application of preparedness for the impacts of climate change and disaster relief, particularly in North America. Insurance companies use these…

Tropical cyclones are among the most consequential weather hazards, yet estimates of their risk are limited by the relatively short historical record. To extend these records, researchers often generate large ensembles of synthetic storms…

Extreme events are of great importance since they often represent impactive occurrences. For instance, in terms of climate and weather, extreme events might be major storms, floods, extreme heat or cold waves, and more. However, they are…

In a changing climate, artificial intelligence (AI) weather models have the potential to provide cheaper, faster, and more accurate forecasts of high-impact weather events. To realize this potential and gauge trustworthiness, there is a…

Understanding the plausible upper bounds of extreme weather events is essential for risk assessment in a warming climate. Existing methods, based on large ensembles of physics-based models, are often computationally expensive or lack the…

Tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories are governed by large-scale steering flows with sensitive dependence on initial conditions, raising the question of whether targeted perturbations can induce track deviations. We present a case study…

This study introduces the CyPort Dataset, recording disruptions to 145 U.S. principal ports and freight network from 90 tropical cyclones (2015-2023). It addresses limitations of event specific resilience studies and provides a…

Deep learning models for meteorological forecasting often fail in rare but high-impact events such as typhoons, where relevant data is scarce. Existing fine-tuning methods typically face a trade-off between overlooking these extreme events…

Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…

Rare event simulation and rare event probability estimation are important tasks within the analysis of systems subject to uncertainty and randomness. Simultaneously, accurately estimating rare event probabilities is an inherently difficult…

Climate extremes, such as hurricanes, combined with large-scale integration of environment-sensitive renewables, could exacerbate the risk of widespread power outages. We introduce a coupled climate-energy model for cascading power outages,…

The coastal regions of the eastern and southern United States are impacted by severe storm events, leading to significant loss of life and properties. Accurately forecasting storm surge and wind impacts from hurricanes is essential for…

The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current…

Advances in deep learning methods for weather forecasting are creating opportunities to computationally explore the potential for steering or control of extreme weather trajectories for societal risk reduction. We present initial…

This paper complements the large body of social sensing literature by developing means for augmenting sensing data with inference results that "fill-in" missing pieces. It specifically explores the synergy between (i) inference techniques…