相关论文: Teleological Inference in Structural Causal Models…

Predicting a label correctly does not necessarily require representing the operation that produces it. Transformer representations are known to carry label-level information, but whether they encode semantic operations producing those…

Claiming causal inferences in network settings necessitates careful consideration of the often complex dependency between outcomes for actors. Of particular importance are treatment spillover or outcome interference effects. We consider…

Characterising causal structure is an activity that is ubiquitous across the sciences. Causal models are representational devices that can be used as oracles for future interventions, to predict how values of some variables will change in…

Causal Machine Learning (CausalML) is an umbrella term for machine learning methods that formalize the data-generation process as a structural causal model (SCM). This perspective enables us to reason about the effects of changes to this…

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

While transformer-based foundation models excel at forecasting routine patterns, two questions remain: do they internalize semantic concepts such as market regimes, or merely fit curves? And can their internal representations be leveraged…

While LLMs exhibit impressive fluency and factual recall, they struggle with robust causal reasoning, often relying on spurious correlations and brittle patterns. Similarly, traditional Reinforcement Learning agents also lack causal…

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge. In practice, this challenge is common in many areas, such as retail sales, transportation systems, and medical…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in various reasoning and generation tasks. However, their proficiency in complex causal reasoning, discovery, and estimation remains an area of active development, often…

Design fictions allow us to prototype the future. They enable us to interrogate emerging or non-existent technologies and examine their implications. We present three design fictions that probe the potential consequences of operationalizing…

This paper proposes a formal framework for modeling the interaction of causal and (qualitative) epistemic reasoning. To this purpose, we extend the notion of a causal model with a representation of the epistemic state of an agent. On the…

Current direct modeling systems limit users to low-level interactions with vertices, edges, and faces, forcing designers to manage detailed geometric elements rather than focusing on high-level design intent. This paper introduces semantic…

Abstractive related work generation has attracted increasing attention in generating coherent related work that better helps readers grasp the background in the current research. However, most existing abstractive models ignore the inherent…

This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe…

Numerous decision-making tasks require estimating causal effects under interventions on different parts of a system. As practitioners consider using large language models (LLMs) to automate decisions, studying their causal reasoning…

Marginal structural models (MSMs) are often used to estimate causal effects of treatments on survival time outcomes from observational data when time-dependent confounding may be present. They can be fitted using, e.g., inverse probability…

Structural Causal Models are widely used in causal modelling, but how they relate to other modelling tools is poorly understood. In this paper we provide a novel perspective on the relationship between Ordinary Differential Equations and…

As LLM-based agents increasingly operate in multi-agent systems, understanding adversarial manipulation becomes critical for defensive design. We present a systematic study of intentional deception as an engineered capability, using…

Heterogeneity in medical data, e.g., from data collected at different sites and with different protocols in a clinical study, is a fundamental hurdle for accurate prediction using machine learning models, as such models often fail to…

Programming languages assume programs directly execute effects. When autonomous systems generate behavior dynamically, this assumption becomes problematic: there is no structural mediation point between deciding to act and acting. We define…