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We propose a framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems based on generative modeling. Given observations of the system state over time, we formulate the forecasting problem as sampling from the conditional distribution of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-29 Yifan Chen , Mark Goldstein , Mengjian Hua , Michael S. Albergo , Nicholas M. Boffi , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Diffusion models provide expressive priors for forecasting trajectories of dynamical systems, but are typically unreliable in the sparse data regime. Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) improves reliability in such settings; however,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-30 Kaiyuan Tan , Kendra Givens , Peilun Li , Thomas Beckers

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-09-10 Grace Burtenshaw , Joe Lane , Meagan Carney

Training deep learning models, particularly Transformer-based architectures such as Large Language Models (LLMs), demands substantial computational resources and extended training periods. While optimal configuration and infrastructure…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-30 Alireza Pourali , Arian Boukani , Hamzeh Khazaei

Anticipating supply chain disruptions before they materialize is a core challenge for firms and policymakers alike. A key difficulty is learning to reason reliably about infrequent, high-impact events from noisy and unstructured inputs - a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-03 Benjamin Turtel , Paul Wilczewski , Kris Skotheim

Traffic prediction remains a key challenge in spatio-temporal data mining, despite progress in deep learning. Accurate forecasting is hindered by the complex influence of external factors such as traffic accidents and regulations, often…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-11 Hongjun Wang , Jiawei Yong , Jiawei Wang , Shintaro Fukushima , Renhe Jiang

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-04-15 Huan Zhang , Justin Finkel , Dorian S. Abbot , Edwin P. Gerber , Jonathan Weare

The use of deep learning methods for modeling fluid flow has drawn a lot of attention in the past few years. In situations where conventional numerical approaches can be computationally expensive, these techniques have shown promise in…

Modeling Lagrangian turbulence remains a fundamental challenge due to its multiscale, intermittent, and non-Gaussian nature. Recent advances in data-driven diffusion models have enabled the generation of realistic Lagrangian velocity…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2025-07-28 Tianyi Li , Flavio Tuteri , Michele Buzzicotti , Fabio Bonaccorso , Luca Biferale

The fractional advection-dispersion equation (FADE) has attracted increased attention from researchers as it provides an accurate description for challenging phenomenas with long-range time memory and spatial interactions, such as the…

数值分析 · 数学 2019-02-12 Huan Liu , Hong Wang , Xiangcheng Zheng

Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among many complex systems in science and engineering. The existence of a strange attractor in the turbulent…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2018-02-23 Andrew J. Majda , Di Qi

Transformer-based methods have shown great potential in long-term time series forecasting. However, most of these methods adopt the standard point-wise self-attention mechanism, which not only becomes intractable for long-term forecasting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-24 Dazhao Du , Bing Su , Zhewei Wei

Advances in deep learning methods for weather forecasting are creating opportunities to computationally explore the potential for steering or control of extreme weather trajectories for societal risk reduction. We present initial…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-04-22 Moyan Liu , Qin Huang , Upmanu Lall

Modeling complex physical dynamics is a fundamental task in science and engineering. Traditional physics-based models are sample efficient, and interpretable but often rely on rigid assumptions. Furthermore, direct numerical approximation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-02 Rui Wang , Rose Yu

Data-driven reduced-order models of the dynamics of complex flows are important for tasks related to design, understanding, prediction, and control. Many flows obey symmetries, and the present work illustrates how these can be exploited to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-23 Carlos E. Pérez De Jesús , Alec J. Linot , Michael D. Graham

Neural populations exhibit latent dynamical structures that drive time-evolving spiking activities, motivating the search for models that capture both intrinsic network dynamics and external unobserved influences. In this work, we introduce…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-11 Yue Song , T. Anderson Keller , Yisong Yue , Pietro Perona , Max Welling

Model reduction for fluid flow simulation continues to be of great interest across a number of scientific and engineering fields. In a previous work [arXiv:2104.13962], we explored the use of Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODE) as…

We present a novel technique for assessing the dynamics of multiphase fluid flow in the oil reservoir. We demonstrate an efficient workflow for handling the 3D reservoir simulation data in a way which is orders of magnitude faster than the…

We study the saturation of three-dimensional unstable perturbations on a fast rotating turbulent flow using direct numerical simulations (DNSs). Under the effect of Kolmogorov forcing, a transition between states dominated by coherent…

Generative diffusion models are extensively used in unsupervised and self-supervised machine learning with the aim to generate new samples from a probability distribution estimated with a set of known samples. They have demonstrated…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2026-01-28 Wilfried Genuist , Éric Savin , Filippo Gatti , Didier Clouteau