相关论文: Proxy-Guided Measurement Calibration

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Long-range ensemble forecasts are typically verified as anomalies with respect to a lead-time dependent climatological mean to remove the influence of systematic biases. However, common methods for calculating anomalies result in…

Probabilistic forecasts are typically obtained using state-of-the-art statistical and machine learning models, with model parameters estimated by optimizing a proper scoring rule over a set of training data. If the model class is not…

Sequential modelling of high-dimensional data is an important problem that appears in many domains including model-based reinforcement learning and dynamics identification for control. Latent variable models applied to sequential data…

External effects such as shocks and temperature variations affect the calibration of visual-inertial sensor systems and thus they cannot fully rely on factory calibrations. Re-calibrations performed on short user-collected datasets might…

We consider the problem of estimating a causal effect in a multi-domain setting. The causal effect of interest is confounded by an unobserved confounder and can change between the different domains. We assume that we have access to a proxy…

Model selection aims to identify a sufficiently well performing model that is possibly simpler than the most complex model among a pool of candidates. However, the decision-making process itself can inadvertently introduce non-negligible…

Due to the unobservability of confoundings, there has been widespread concern about how to compute causality quantitatively. To address this challenge, proxy-based negative control approaches have been commonly adopted, where auxiliary…

Efficiently and meaningfully estimating prediction uncertainty is important for exploration in active learning campaigns in materials discovery, where samples with high uncertainty are interpreted as containing information missing from the…

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Recent work introduced loss functions which measure the error of a prediction based on multiple simultaneous observations or outcomes. In this paper, we explore the theoretical and practical questions that arise when using such…

Empirical models of demand for differentiated products rely on low-dimensional product representations to capture substitution patterns. These representations are increasingly proxied by applying ML methods to high-dimensional, unstructured…

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Distinguishing causal connections from correlations is important in many scenarios. However, the presence of unobserved variables, such as the latent confounder, can introduce bias in conditional independence testing commonly employed in…

We investigate inference in a latent binary variable model where a noisy proxy of the latent variable is available, motivated by the variable perturbation effectiveness problem in single-cell CRISPR screens. The baseline approach is to…

Positivity violations, which occur when some subgroups either always or never receive a treatment of interest, pose significant challenges for causal effect estimation with observational data. Recent balancing weight methods have proved to…

We present methods for estimating loss-based measures of the performance of a prediction model in a target population that differs from the source population in which the model was developed, in settings where outcome and covariate data are…

We consider the problem of constructing probabilistic predictions that lead to accurate decisions when employed by downstream users to inform actions. For a single decision maker, designing an optimal predictor is equivalent to minimizing a…

High-dimensional multivariate longitudinal data, which arise when many outcome variables are measured repeatedly over time, are becoming increasingly common in social, behavioral and health sciences. We propose a latent variable model for…

Inference for high-dimensional logistic regression models using penalized methods has been a challenging research problem. As an illustration, a major difficulty is the significant bias of the Lasso estimator, which limits its direct…