相关论文: A categorical formalization of epistemic uncertain…

Rational speakers are supposed to know what they know and what they do not know, and to generate expressions matching the strength of evidence. In contrast, it is still a challenge for current large language models to generate corresponding…

Causality has traditionally been a scientific way to generate knowledge by relating causes to effects. From an imaginery point of view, causal graphs are a helpful tool for representing and infering new causal information. In previous…

Argumentation is the process of constructing arguments about propositions, and the assignment of statements of confidence to those propositions based on the nature and relative strength of their supporting arguments. The process is modelled…

Probabilistic epistemic argumentation allows for reasoning about argumentation problems in a way that is well founded by probability theory. Epistemic states are represented by probability functions over possible worlds and can be adjusted…

Ambiguity is shown in the context of the differential calculus of several variables and with the help of the language of category theory, a way to solve it in its most general form is offered. It is also shown that this new definition is…

Although there are many mathematical theories to address uncertain phenomena however, these theories are presented under implicit presupposition that uncertainty of objects is accurately measurable while not considering that the measure of…

Estimating, understanding, and communicating uncertainty is fundamental to statistical epidemiology, where model-based estimates regularly inform real-world decisions. However, sources of uncertainty are rarely formalised, and existing…

We explore probability modelling of discretization uncertainty for system states defined implicitly by ordinary or partial differential equations. Accounting for this uncertainty can avoid posterior under-coverage when likelihoods are…

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

If uncertainty is modelled by a probability measure, decisions are typically made by choosing the option with the highest expected utility. If an imprecise probability model is used instead, this decision rule can be generalised in several…

Binary classification is a task that involves the classification of data into one of two distinct classes. It is widely utilized in various fields. However, conventional classifiers tend to make overconfident predictions for data that…

This paper introduces epistemic graphs as a generalization of the epistemic approach to probabilistic argumentation. In these graphs, an argument can be believed or disbelieved up to a given degree, thus providing a more fine--grained…

Uncertainty quantification of complex technical systems is often based on a computer model of the system. As all models such a computer model is always wrong in the sense that it does not describe the reality perfectly. The purpose of this…

For many years, at least since McCarthy and Hayes (1969), writers have lamented, and attempted to compensate for, the alleged fact that we often do not have adequate statistical knowledge for governing the uncertainty of belief, for making…

The aim of this work is to provide a unified framework for ordinal representations of uncertainty lying at the crosswords between possibility and probability theories. Such confidence relations between events are commonly found in monotonic…

Due to lack of scientific understanding, some mechanisms may be missing in mathematical modeling of complex phenomena in science and engineering. These mathematical models thus contain some uncertainties such as uncertain parameters. One…

Quantitative practice across statistics, engineering, and machine learning has been transformed by the automation of inference. Predictions are produced, validated, and deployed at scale and speed that human-mediated reasoning could not…

This paper proposes a belief-based framework for social norms in environments where individuals choose a single action. Relaxing the assumption that the appropriateness standard is common knowledge, the framework allows individuals to be…

How do we know how much we know? Quantifying uncertainty associated with our modelling work is the only way we can answer how much we know about any phenomenon. With quantitative science now highly influential in the public sphere and the…

This paper introduces a qualitative measure of ambiguity and analyses its relationship with other measures of uncertainty. Probability measures relative likelihoods, while ambiguity measures vagueness surrounding those judgments. Ambiguity…