相关论文: Diagnostics for Individual-Level Prediction Instab…

Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90\% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90\% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer…

Predictive geometric models deliver excellent results for many Machine Learning use cases. Despite their undoubted performance, neural predictive algorithms can show unexpected degrees of instability and variance, particularly when applied…

Recent research reveals that machine learning (ML) models are highly sensitive to minor changes in their training procedure, such as the inclusion or exclusion of a single data point, leading to conflicting predictions on individual data…

Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action $a$ to take…

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems accelerate medical workflows and improve diagnostic accuracy in healthcare, serving as second-opinion systems. However, the unpredictability of AI errors poses a significant challenge, particularly in…

As the use of machine learning in high impact domains becomes widespread, the importance of evaluating safety has increased. An important aspect of this is evaluating how robust a model is to changes in setting or population, which…

This work investigates the detection of instabilities that may occur when utilizing deep learning models for image reconstruction tasks. Although neural networks often empirically outperform traditional reconstruction methods, their usage…

In high-stakes domains like healthcare, users often expect that sharing personal information with machine learning systems will yield tangible benefits, such as more accurate diagnoses and clearer explanations of contributing factors.…

Software quality assurance activities become increasingly difficult as software systems become more and more complex and continuously grow in size. Moreover, testing becomes even more expensive when dealing with large-scale systems. Thus,…

Owing to their inherently interpretable structure, decision trees are commonly used in applications where interpretability is essential. Recent work has focused on improving various aspects of decision trees, including their predictive…

We find that the performance of state-of-the-art models on Natural Language Inference (NLI) and Reading Comprehension (RC) analysis/stress sets can be highly unstable. This raises three questions: (1) How will the instability affect the…

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

This paper attempts to answer a "simple question" in building predictive models using machine learning algorithms. Although diagnostic and predictive models for various diseases have been proposed using data from large cohort studies and…

Notable progress has been made in numerous fields of machine learning based on neural network-driven mutual information (MI) bounds. However, utilizing the conventional MI-based losses is often challenging due to their practical and…

Applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in critical contexts, such as medicine, requires the implementation of safety measures to reduce risks of harm in case of prediction errors. Spotting ML failures is of…

In countries that enabled patients to choose their own providers, a common problem is that the patients did not make rational decisions, and hence, fail to use healthcare resources efficiently. This might cause problems such as overwhelming…

Reinforcement learning (RL) experiments have notoriously high variance, and minor details can have disproportionately large effects on measured outcomes. This is problematic for creating reproducible research and also serves as an obstacle…

Quantifying uncertainty in clinical predictions is critical for high-stakes diagnosis tasks. Conformal prediction offers a principled approach by providing prediction sets with theoretical coverage guarantees. However, in practice, patient…

The use of machine learning to guide clinical decision making has the potential to worsen existing health disparities. Several recent works frame the problem as that of algorithmic fairness, a framework that has attracted considerable…