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Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful but computationally expensive machine learning models, requiring an estimate of the kernel covariance matrix for every prediction. In large and complex domains, such as graphs, sets, or images, the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-04-22 Alessandro Tibo , Thomas Dyhre Nielsen

In this paper, we consider the challenge of maximizing an unknown function f for which evaluations are noisy and are acquired with high cost. An iterative procedure uses the previous measures to actively select the next estimation of f…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-09-03 Emile Contal , David Buffoni , Alexandre Robicquet , Nicolas Vayatis

Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN) are powerful Bayesian models for multi-output regression, but their inference is intractable. To address this issue, existing methods use a fully factorized structure (or a mixture of such…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-05-19 Shibo Li , Wei Xing , Mike Kirby , Shandian Zhe

Bayesian optimization (BO) has well-documented merits for optimizing black-box functions with an expensive evaluation cost. Such functions emerge in applications as diverse as hyperparameter tuning, drug discovery, and robotics. BO hinges…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-28 Qin Lu , Konstantinos D. Polyzos , Bingcong Li , Georgios B. Giannakis

We propose automated augmented conjugate inference, a new inference method for non-conjugate Gaussian processes (GP) models. Our method automatically constructs an auxiliary variable augmentation that renders the GP model conditionally…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-02-27 Théo Galy-Fajou , Florian Wenzel , Manfred Opper

Estimating causal effects in quasi-experiments with spatio-temporal panel data often requires adjusting for unmeasured confounding that varies across space and time. Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer a flexible, nonparametric modeling approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-08 Sofia L. Vega , Rachel C. Nethery

The Gaussian process (GP) is a nonparametric prior distribution over functions indexed by time, space, or other high-dimensional index set. The GP is a flexible model yet its limitation is given by its very nature: it can only model…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-07-15 Gonzalo Rios , Felipe Tobar

Prediction is a central task of machine learning. Our goal is to solve large scale prediction problems using Generative Quantile Bayesian Prediction (GQBP).By directly learning predictive quantiles rather than densities we achieve a number…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-28 Maria Nareklishvili , Nick Polson , Vadim Sokolov

Model selection in Gaussian processes scales prohibitively with the size of the training dataset, both in time and memory. While many approximations exist, all incur inevitable approximation error. Recent work accounts for this error in the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-08 Jonathan Wenger , Kaiwen Wu , Philipp Hennig , Jacob R. Gardner , Geoff Pleiss , John P. Cunningham

Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a flexible and statistically principled foundation for modelling spatiotemporal phenomena, but their $O(N^3)$ scaling makes them intractable for large datasets. Approximate methods such as variational…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-01 Jhonathan Navott , Daniel Jenson , Seth Flaxman , Elizaveta Semenova

We present a novel forecasting framework for lake water temperature, which is crucial for managing lake ecosystems and drinking water resources. The General Lake Model (GLM) has been previously used for this purpose, but, similar to many…

Exact Gaussian Process (GP) regression has O(N^3) runtime for data size N, making it intractable for large N. Many algorithms for improving GP scaling approximate the covariance with lower rank matrices. Other work has exploited structure…

机器学习 · 统计学 2012-09-24 Elad Gilboa , Yunus Saatçi , John P. Cunningham

Gaussian Boson Sampling (GBS) generate random samples of photon-click patterns from a class of probability distributions that are hard for a classical computer to sample from. Despite heroic demonstrations for quantum supremacy using GBS,…

量子物理 · 物理学 2024-02-07 Mushkan Sureka , Saikat Guha

With the significant advancement in quantum computation in the past couple of decades, the exploration of machine-learning subroutines using quantum strategies has become increasingly popular. Gaussian process regression is a widely used…

量子物理 · 物理学 2018-03-07 Siddhartha Das , George Siopsis , Christian Weedbrook

Bayesian Optimization is a popular tool for tuning algorithms in automatic machine learning (AutoML) systems. Current state-of-the-art methods leverage Random Forests or Gaussian processes to build a surrogate model that predicts algorithm…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-08 Jeroen van Hoof , Joaquin Vanschoren

Global sensitivity analysis of complex numerical simulators is often limited by the small number of model evaluations that can be afforded. In such settings, surrogate models built from a limited set of simulations can substantially reduce…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-21 Guerlain Lambert , Céline Helbert , Claire Lauvernet

We study the calibration of Gaussian process (GP) predictive distributions in the interpolation setting from a design-marginal perspective. Conditioning on the data and averaging over a design measure \mu, we formalize \mu-coverage for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-08 Aurélien Pion , Emmanuel Vazquez

The use of Gaussian processes (GPs) is supported by efficient sampling algorithms, a rich methodological literature, and strong theoretical grounding. However, due to their prohibitive computation and storage demands, the use of exact GPs…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-07-27 Kelly R. Moran , Matthew W. Wheeler

We address the problem of continual learning in multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models for handling sequential input-output observations. Our approach extends the existing prior-posterior recursion of online Bayesian inference, i.e.\ past…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-11-04 Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez , Mauricio A. Álvarez

Gaussian Process (GP) models provide a flexible framework for prediction and uncertainty quantification. For most covariance functions, however, exact GP prediction with $n$ points scales as $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$, making it prohibitively…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-05-29 Samanyu Arora , Christopher J. Geoga