相关论文: Some Simple Economics of AGI

We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We…

Current AI systems are better than humans in some knowledge dimensions but weaker in others. Guided by the long-standing vision of machine intelligence inspired by the Turing Test, AI developers increasingly seek to eliminate this "jagged"…

The emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) labor, including AI agents and autonomous systems operating at near-zero marginal cost, reduces the marginal productivity of human labor, ultimately pushing wages toward zero. As AGI…

We formalize a macro-financial stress test for rapid AI adoption. Rather than a productivity bust or existential risk, we identify a distribution-and-contract mismatch: AI-generated abundance coexists with demand deficiency because economic…

Between the narrow systems we deploy and the general intelligence we speculate about lies an entire regime of machine behavior that has never received its own name. This monograph argues that this regime is not empty: it is where…

We examine whether substantial AI automation could accelerate global economic growth by about an order of magnitude, akin to the economic growth effects of the Industrial Revolution. We identify three primary drivers for such growth: 1) the…

The integration of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) into economic production represents a transformative shift with profound implications for labor markets, income distribution, and technological growth. This study extends the Constant…

What looks like acceleration can be a quiet transfer of burden from the present to the future. Attempts to replace human labor with AI systems are often presented as rational responses to technological progress, but that view is often…

Throughout the modern era, when new technologies displaced workers, societies adapted through the same mechanism: education raised the cognitive ceiling, producing workers capable of tasks machines could not yet reach. Generative AI may be…

The artificial intelligence industry is not an isolated economic phenomenon; it is the current physical substrate for a broader, multi-billion-year process: the evolution of an abstract intelligence on Earth. As the scale of computation…

The development of AGI threatens to erode government tax bases, lower living standards, and disempower citizens -- risks that make the 40-year stagnation of wages during the first industrial revolution look mild in comparison. While AI…

In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) decision-making and autonomous systems became an integrated part of the economy, industry, and society. The evolving economy of the human-AI ecosystem raising concerns regarding the risks and…

From early days, a key and controversial question inside the artificial intelligence community was whether Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is achievable. AGI is the ability of machines and computer programs to achieve human-level…

The rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) marks an existential rupture in economic and political order, dissolving the historic boundaries between labor and capital. Unlike past technological advancements, AGI is both a worker and…

Competent-looking judgment, including selecting, ranking, attributing, and certifying, is now produced at scale at marginal cost approaching zero, inverting the dominant economics-of-AI reading that treats judgment as the scarce complement…

In recent years we observed rapid and significant advancements in artificial intelligence (A.I.). So much so that many wonder how close humanity is to developing an A.I. model that can achieve human level of intelligence, also known as…

AI risks are typically framed around physical threats to humanity, a loss of control or an accidental error causing humanity's extinction. However, I argue in line with the gradual disempowerment thesis, that there is an underappreciated…

Today, the economy is greatly influenced by Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of the quantitative relations of AGI on the country's economic parameters. The authors use the analysis…

This paper develops a unified framework for evaluating the optimal degree of task automation. Moving beyond binary automate-or-not assessments, we model automation intensity as a continuous choice in which firms minimize costs by selecting…

Artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing exponentially and is likely to have profound impacts on human wellbeing, social equity, and environmental sustainability. Here we argue that the "alignment problem" in AI research is also an…