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Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…

动力系统 · 数学 2026-05-22 Charlotte Moser , Nan Chen , Marios Andreou

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…

地球物理 · 物理学 2010-03-02 Andrei Gabrielov , Vladimir Keilis-Borok , Sayaka Olsen , Ilya Zaliapin

Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-07-19 Chih-Yuan Chiu , Kshitij Kulkarni , Shankar Sastry

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-07-15 Fabian Wagner , Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

Although many deep-learning-based super-resolution approaches have been proposed in recent years, because no ground truth is available in the inference stage, few can quantify the errors and uncertainties of the super-resolved results. For…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-08-10 Jingyi Shen , Han-Wei Shen

To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-04-04 Romain Lacombe , Hannah Grossman , Lucas Hendren , David Lüdeke

Strong lensing is a sensitive probe of the small-scale density fluctuations in the Universe. We implement a novel approach to modeling strongly lensed systems using probabilistic cataloging, which is a transdimensional, hierarchical, and…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2018-03-06 Tansu Daylan , Francis-Yan Cyr-Racine , Ana Diaz Rivero , Cora Dvorkin , Douglas P. Finkbeiner

Rare events are events that are expected to occur infrequently, or more technically, those that have low probabilities (say, order of $10^{-3}$ or less) of occurring according to a probability model. In the context of uncertainty…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-08-21 James L. Beck , Konstantin M. Zuev

Event cameras rely on motion to obtain information about scene appearance. This means that appearance and motion are inherently linked: either both are present and recorded in the event data, or neither is captured. Previous works treat the…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-07-23 Shuang Guo , Friedhelm Hamann , Guillermo Gallego

There is a shortage of multi-wavelength and spectroscopic followup capabilities given the number of transient and variable astrophysical events discovered through wide-field, optical surveys such as the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory.…

Events in spatiotemporal systems are ubiquitous, yet modeling their complex distributions remains challenging. Existing point process models often rely on strong structural assumptions and are typically limited to autoregressive,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-05 Keyan Chen , Qiwei Yuan , Zhitong Xu , Bin Shen , Shandian Zhe

There is a growing need for machine learning-based anomaly detection strategies to broaden the search for Beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) physics at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and elsewhere. The first step of any anomaly detection…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2023-01-18 Gregor Kasieczka , Radha Mastandrea , Vinicius Mikuni , Benjamin Nachman , Mariel Pettee , David Shih

Weather extremes pose major societal risks, especially in a changing climate, but due to their rarity, they are difficult to study using limited observations or complex climate models. We introduce AI+RES, a framework coupling fast AI…

Event detection in time series is a challenging task due to the prevalence of imbalanced datasets, rare events, and time interval-defined events. Traditional supervised deep learning methods primarily employ binary classification, where…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-09-16 Menouar Azib , Benjamin Renard , Philippe Garnier , Vincent Génot , Nicolas André

The development of enhanced sampling methods has greatly extended the scope of atomistic simulations, allowing long-time phenomena to be studied with accessible computational resources. Many such methods rely on the identification of an…

计算物理 · 物理学 2022-06-08 Luigi Bonati , GiovanniMaria Piccini , Michele Parrinello

Unsupervised anomaly detection and localization is crucial to the practical application when collecting and labeling sufficient anomaly data is infeasible. Most existing representation-based approaches extract normal image features with a…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2021-11-17 Jiawei Yu , Ye Zheng , Xiang Wang , Wei Li , Yushuang Wu , Rui Zhao , Liwei Wu

Advancements in onboard computing mean remote sensing agents can employ state-of-the-art computer vision and machine learning at the edge. These capabilities can be leveraged to unlock new rare, transient, and pinpoint measurements of…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-09-04 Itai Zilberstein , Alberto Candela , Steve Chien

Reliable detection and classification of power system events are critical for maintaining grid stability and situational awareness. Existing approaches often depend on limited labeled datasets, which restricts their ability to generalize to…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-05-22 Yi Hu , Zheyuan Cheng

We propose a physics-constrained machine learning method-based on reservoir computing- to time-accurately predict extreme events and long-term velocity statistics in a model of turbulent shear flow. The method leverages the strengths of two…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2021-04-14 Nguyen Anh Khoa Doan , Wolfgang Polifke , Luca Magri

The physics of solar flares occurring on the Sun is highly complex and far from fully understood. However, observations show that solar eruptions are associated with the intense kilogauss fields of active regions, where free energies are…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2024-01-26 Bach Viet Do , Yang Chen , XuanLong Nguyen , Ward Manchester