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In this paper we propose BVAR-connect, a variational inference approach to a Bayesian multi-subject vector autoregressive (VAR) model for inference on effective brain connectivity based on resting-state functional MRI data. The modeling…

Variational inference (VI) has become a widely used approach for scalable Bayesian inference, but its performance strongly depends on the flexibility of the chosen variational family. In this work, we propose a novel variational family that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-03 Giovanni Piccirilli , Aluísio Pinheiro

Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-24 Zheng Zhou , Xiangfei Zhang , Chongguang Tao , Yuhong Yang

Univariate and multivariate general linear regression models, subject to linear inequality constraints, arise in many scientific applications. The linear inequality restrictions on model parameters are often available from phenomenological…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-07 Solmaz Seifollahi , Kaniav Kamary , Hossein Bevrani

Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-17 Jiarong Fan , Juhyun Park. Thi Phuong Thuy Vo , Nicolas Brunel

Structured additive distributional regression models offer a versatile framework for estimating complete conditional distributions by relating all parameters of a parametric distribution to covariates. Although these models efficiently…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-14 Jana Kleinemeier , Nadja Klein

We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-16 Nicolas Bianco , Mauro Bernardi , Daniele Bianchi

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-06-29 Alexander Moreno , Tameem Adel , Edward Meeds , James M. Rehg , Max Welling

A hierarchical Bayesian approach that permits simultaneous inference for the regression coefficient matrix and the error precision (inverse covariance) matrix in the multivariate linear model is proposed. Assuming a natural ordering of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-29 Christina Zhao , Ding Xiang , Galin L. Jones , Adam J. Rothman

In many scientific applications, uncertainty of estimates from an earlier (upstream) analysis needs to be propagated in subsequent (downstream) Bayesian analysis, without feedback. Cutting feedback methods, also termed cut-Bayes, achieve…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-28 Jiafang Song , Sandipan Pramanik , Abhirup Datta

Probabilistic principal component analysis (PCA) and its Bayesian variant (BPCA) are widely used for dimension reduction in machine learning and statistics. The main advantage of probabilistic PCA over the traditional formulation is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-23 Arghya Datta , Philippe Gagnon , Florian Maire

Variational inference (VI) is widely used for approximate inference in Bayesian machine learning. In addition to this practical success, generalization bounds for variational inference and related algorithms have been developed, mostly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-19 Yadi Wei , Roni Khardon

Variational Bayesian inference and (collapsed) Gibbs sampling are the two important classes of inference algorithms for Bayesian networks. Both have their advantages and disadvantages: collapsed Gibbs sampling is unbiased but is also…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-06-18 Max Welling , Yee Whye Teh , Hilbert Kappen

We propose to perform mean-field variational inference (MFVI) in a rotated coordinate system that reduces correlations between variables. The rotation is determined by principal component analysis (PCA) of a cross-covariance matrix…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-10-10 Yifan Chen , Sifan Liu

Gaussian variational approximation is a popular methodology to approximate posterior distributions in Bayesian inference especially in high dimensional and large data settings. To control the computational cost while being able to capture…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-04-07 Bingxin Zhou , Junbin Gao , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Richard Gerlach

Full waveform inversion (FWI) can be expressed in a Bayesian framework, where the associated uncertainties are captured by the posterior probability distribution (PPD). In practice, solving Bayesian FWI with sampling-based methods such as…

地球物理 · 物理学 2025-11-05 Shuhua Hu , Mrinal K Sen , Zeyu Zhao , Abdelrahman Elmeliegy , Shuo Zhang

This paper is concerned with the approximation of probability distributions known up to normalization constants, with a focus on Bayesian inference for large-scale inverse problems in scientific computing. In this context, key challenges…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-10 Baojun Che , Yifan Chen , Zhenghao Huan , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Weijie Wang

We introduce a flexible empirical Bayes approach for fitting Bayesian generalized linear models. Specifically, we adopt a novel mean-field variational inference (VI) method and the prior is estimated within the VI algorithm, making the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-30 Dongyue Xie , Wanrong Zhu , Matthew Stephens

Variational Bayes (VB) has become a widely-used tool for Bayesian inference in statistics and machine learning. Nonetheless, the development of the existing VB algorithms is so far generally restricted to the case where the variational…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-08-04 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Dang H. Nguyen , Duy Nguyen

Stein variational inference (SVI) is a sample-based approximate Bayesian inference technique that generates a sample set by jointly optimizing the samples' locations to minimize an information-theoretic measure of discrepancy with the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-22 Liam Pavlovic , David M. Rosen