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Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-06-15 Dongxia Wu , Liyao Gao , Xinyue Xiong , Matteo Chinazzi , Alessandro Vespignani , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Uncertainty quantification is critical for ensuring adequate predictive power of computational models used in biology. Focusing on two anaerobic digestion models, this article introduces a novel generalized Bayesian procedure, called…

生物大分子 · 定量生物学 2024-12-02 Antoine Picard-Weibel , Gabriel Capson-Tojo , Benjamin Guedj , Roman Moscoviz

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning is currently drawing increasing research interest, driven by the rapid deployment of deep neural networks across different fields, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-08-26 Zongren Zou , Xuhui Meng , Apostolos F Psaros , George Em Karniadakis

Single-pass uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for classification represent uncertainty by predicting a tractable distribution over the class probability vector. While existing approaches primarily focus on enhancing the expressiveness…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-26 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-11-13 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

Computational imaging is crucial in many disciplines from autonomous driving to life sciences. However, traditional model-driven and iterative methods consume large computational power and lack scalability for imaging. Deep learning (DL) is…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-08-26 Weiru Fan , Xiaobin Tang , Yiyi Liao , Da-Wei Wang

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-14 Rebecca Nevin , Aleksandra Ćiprijanović , Brian D. Nord

Mechanical Ventilation (MV) is a critical life-support intervention in intensive care units (ICUs). However, optimal ventilator settings are challenging to determine because of the complexity of balancing patient-specific physiological…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-18 Niloufar Eghbali , Tuka Alhanai , Mohammad M. Ghassemi

Time-series with volatility clustering pose a unique challenge to uncertainty quantification (UQ) for returns forecasts. Methods for UQ such as Deep Evidential regression offer a simple way of quantifying return forecast uncertainty without…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2024-09-20 Steven Y. K. Wong , Jennifer S. K. Chan , Lamiae Azizi

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has emerged as a promising approach for detecting hallucinations and low-quality output of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, obtaining proper uncertainty scores is complicated by the conditional…

The introduction of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) has paved the way for numerous semantic segmentation applications. For several tasks, quantifying the uncertainty of SAM is of particular interest. However, the ambiguous nature of the…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-07-30 Timo Kaiser , Thomas Norrenbrock , Bodo Rosenhahn

Quality-Diversity (QD) has demonstrated potential in discovering collections of diverse solutions to optimisation problems. Originally designed for deterministic environments, QD has been extended to noisy, stochastic, or uncertain domains…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2025-02-11 Manon Flageat , Johann Huber , François Helenon , Stephane Doncieux , Antoine Cully

Large language Models (LLMs) have achieved significant breakthroughs across diverse domains; however, they can still produce unreliable or misleading outputs. For responsible LLM application, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-15 Qihao Wen , Jiahao Wang , Yang Nan , Pengfei He , Ravi Tandon , Han Xu

Uncertainty quantification is an important and challenging problem in deep learning. Previous methods rely on dropout layers which are not present in modern deep architectures or batch normalization which is sensitive to batch sizes. In…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2020-07-10 Lukasz Wandzik , Raul Vicente Garcia , Jörg Krüger

It is critical that machine learning (ML) model predictions be trustworthy for high-throughput catalyst discovery approaches. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods allow estimation of the trustworthiness of an ML model, but these methods…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-07 Cameron Gruich , Varun Madhavan , Yixin Wang , Bryan Goldsmith

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-03 Jiaxin Zhang

Uncertainty quantification is at the core of the reliability and robustness of machine learning. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to dissect the uncertainty, especially the \textit{epistemic} component, in deep learning…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-21 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

In the last few decades, uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have been used widely to ensure the robustness of engineering designs. This chapter aims to detail recent advances in popular uncertainty quantification methods used in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-11-08 Dinesh Kumar , Farid Ahmed , Shoaib Usman , Ayodeji Alajo , Syed Alam

With increasing computational demand, Neural-Network (NN) based models are being developed as pre-trained surrogates for different thermohydraulics phenomena. An area where this approach has shown promise is in developing higher-fidelity…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2024-12-13 Cody Grogan , Som Dutta , Mauricio Tano , Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Izabela Gutowska

Development of an accurate, flexible, and numerically efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) method is one of fundamental challenges in machine learning. Previously, a UQ method called DISCO Nets has been proposed (Bouchacourt et al.,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-06 Takuya Kanazawa , Chetan Gupta