相关论文: Winter forecasting of September/October rainfall

Hourly rainfall extremes cause some of the most destructive weather disasters, yet numerical weather prediction models still struggle to forecast them, and a physical basis for their predictability remains unclear. Here, we identify a…

Accurate weather prediction is essential for many aspects of life, notably the early warning of extreme weather events such as rainstorms. Short-term predictions of these events rely on forecasts from numerical weather models, in which,…

Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently,…

With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and…

Rainfall is an important component of the climate system and its statistical properties are vital for prediction purposes. In this study, we have developed a statistical method for constructing the distribution of annual precipitation. The…

Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool…

The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…

Accurate seasonal runoff forecasts are critical for managing California's reservoirs and water supply for millions of its residents. Winter snow accumulation provides a strong source of predictability of snowmelt-based runoff in the spring…

In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…

Regional rainfall forecasting is an important issue in hydrology and meteorology. This paper aims to design an integrated tool by applying various machine learning algorithms, especially the state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms…

We consider the problem of forecasting complex, nonlinear space-time processes when observations provide only partial information of on the system's state. We propose a natural data-driven framework, where the system's dynamics are modelled…

As the role played by statistical and computational sciences in climate and environmental modelling and prediction becomes more important, Machine Learning researchers are becoming more aware of the relevance of their work to help tackle…

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…

Precipitation plays a critical role in the Earth's hydrological cycle, directly affecting ecosystems, agriculture, and water resource management. Accurate precipitation estimation and prediction are crucial for understanding climate…

Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical…

This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Ni\~no events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic…

Deep learning-based time series forecasting has dominated the short-term precipitation forecasting field with the help of its ability to estimate motion flow in high-resolution datasets. The growing interest in precipitation nowcasting…

Climate and weather prediction traditionally relies on complex numerical simulations of atmospheric physics. Deep learning approaches, such as transformers, have recently challenged the simulation paradigm with complex network forecasts.…

In order to reach the supply/demand balance, electricity providers need to predict the demand and production of electricity at different time scales. This implies the need of modeling weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, solar…

Statistical modeling of monthly, seasonal, or annual rainfall data is an important research area in meteorology. These models play a crucial role in rainfed agriculture, where a proper assessment of the future availability of rainwater is…