相关论文: A Two-Stage Bayesian Framework for Multi-Fidelity …

A reliable modeling of uncertain evidence in Bayesian networks based on a set-valued quantification is proposed. Both soft and virtual evidences are considered. We show that evidence propagation in this setup can be reduced to standard…

Online joint estimation of unknown parameters and states in a dynamical system with uncertainty quantification is crucial in many applications. For example, digital twins dynamically update their knowledge of model parameters and states to…

We propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential…

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

There exist two general forms of exact algorithms for updating probabilities in Bayesian Networks. The first approach involves using a structure, usually a clique tree, and performing local message based calculation to extract the belief in…

Earthquake-induced secondary ground failure hazards, such as liquefaction and landslides, result in catastrophic building and infrastructure damage as well as human fatalities. To facilitate emergency responses and mitigate losses, the U.S.…

Rapid and accurate flood extent mapping from Remote Sensing data, such as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), is critical for operational disaster response, but standard Deep Learning models often produce physically impossible predictions due…

This paper proposes a Bayesian modeling approach to address the problem of online fault-tolerant dynamic event region detection in wireless sensor networks. In our model every network node is associated with a virtual community and a trust…

Multi-fidelity methods are prominently used when cheaply-obtained, but possibly biased and noisy, observations must be effectively combined with limited or expensive true data in order to construct reliable models. This arises in both…

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

Explicit quantification of uncertainty in engineering simulations is being increasingly used to inform robust and reliable design practices. In the aerospace industry, computationally-feasible analyses for design optimization purposes often…

Post-disaster inspections are critical to emergency management after earthquakes. The availability of data on the condition of civil infrastructure immediately after an earthquake is of great importance for emergency management.…

The increasing complexity of cascading risks in urban systems necessitates robust, data-driven frameworks to model interdependencies across multiple domains. This study presents a foundational Bayesian network-based approach for analyzing…

Recursive Bayesian inference, in which posterior beliefs are updated in light of accumulating data, is a tool for implementing Bayesian models in applications with streaming and/or very large data sets. As the posterior of one iteration…

Geostatistical modeling of the reservoir intrinsic properties starts only with sparse data available. These estimates will depend largely on the number of wells and their location. The drilling costs are so high that they do not allow new…

Electric power networks are critical lifelines, and their disruption during earthquakes can lead to severe cascading failures and significantly hinder post-disaster recovery. Enhancing their seismic resilience requires identifying and…

Local volatility is an important quantity in option pricing, portfolio hedging, and risk management. It is not directly observable from the market; hence calibrations of local volatility models are necessary using observable market data.…

The rapid proliferation of deep-learning-based detection and association methods has greatly expanded automatically generated earthquake catalogs, but has also introduced false detections, mis-associated arrivals, and poorly constrained…

Bayesian Federated Learning (BFL) enables uncertainty quantification and robust adaptation in distributed learning. In contrast to the frequentist approach, it estimates the posterior distribution of a global model, offering insights into…

A multi-fidelity regression model is proposed for combining multiple datasets with different fidelities, particularly abundant low-fidelity data and scarce high-fidelity observations. The model builds upon recent multi-fidelity frameworks…