相关论文: Prophet as a Reproducible Forecasting Framework: A…

Replicability in machine learning (ML) research is increasingly concerning due to the utilization of complex non-deterministic algorithms and the dependence on numerous hyper-parameter choices, such as model architecture and training…

Software analytics has been the subject of considerable recent attention but is yet to receive significant industry traction. One of the key reasons is that software practitioners are reluctant to trust predictions produced by the analytics…

Forecasting is usually framed as a problem of model choice. This paper starts earlier, asking how much predictive information is available at each horizon. Under logarithmic loss, the answer is exact: the mutual information between the…

Meta-learning researchers face two fundamental issues in their empirical work: prototyping and reproducibility. Researchers are prone to make mistakes when prototyping new algorithms and tasks because modern meta-learning methods rely on…

Prophet inequalities are fundamental optimal stopping problems, where a decision-maker observes sequentially items with values sampled independently from known distributions, and must decide at each new observation to either stop and gain…

The integration of machine learning techniques in materials discovery has become prominent in materials science research and has been accompanied by an increasing trend towards open-source data and tools to propel the field. Despite the…

Probabilistic forecasting is essential for modern risk management, allowing decision-makers to quantify uncertainty in critical systems. This paper tackles this challenge using the volatile REFIT household dataset, which is complicated by a…

Motion forecasting is crucial in enabling autonomous vehicles to anticipate the future trajectories of surrounding agents. To do so, it requires solving mapping, detection, tracking, and then forecasting problems, in a multi-step pipeline.…

A prophet inequality states, for some $\alpha\in[0,1]$, that the expected value achievable by a gambler who sequentially observes random variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ and selects one of them is at least an $\alpha$ fraction of the maximum value…

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

The classical Prophet Inequality arises from a fundamental problem in optimal-stopping theory. In this problem, a gambler sees a finite sequence of independent, non-negative random variables. If he stops the sequence at any time, he…

For any business, planning is a continuous process, and typically business-owners focus on making both long-term planning aligned with a particular strategy as well as short-term planning that accommodates the dynamic market situations. An…

Real-world data streams can change unpredictably due to distribution shifts, feedback loops and adversarial actors, which challenges the validity of forecasts. We present a forecasting framework ensuring valid uncertainty estimates…

Computational reproducibility, the possibility for independent researchers to exactly reproduce published empirical results, is fundamental to science. Despite its importance, the proportion of research articles aiming for reproducibility…

As reinforcement learning (RL) achieves more success in solving complex tasks, more care is needed to ensure that RL research is reproducible and that algorithms herein can be compared easily and fairly with minimal bias. RL results are,…

In an era of increasing computational capabilities and growing environmental consciousness, organizations face a critical challenge in balancing the accuracy of forecasting models with computational efficiency and sustainability. Global…

We consider prophet inequalities under downward-closed constraints. In this problem, a decision-maker makes immediate and irrevocable choices on arriving elements, subject to constraints. Traditionally, performance is compared to the…

Time series forecasting enables early warning and has driven asset performance management from traditional planned maintenance to predictive maintenance. However, the lack of interpretability in forecasting methods undermines users' trust…

Forecast combination -- the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models -- is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which…

In recent years, the research community has raised serious questions about the reproducibility of scientific work. In particular, since many studies include some kind of computing work, reproducibility is also a technological challenge, not…