相关论文: Cluster-Based Bayesian SIRD Modeling of Chickenpox…
There is a rich history of models for the interaction of a biological contagion like influenza with the spread of related information such as an influenza vaccination campaign. Recent work on the spread of interacting contagions on networks…
Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because…
This work covers the analysis of the COVID 19 spread in different countries and dealing the main feature of COVID 19 growth, which is the spread due to the social-contact structure, which is governed by the parameter \b{eta}. The dependency…
Cholera, a severe gastrointestinal infection caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, remains a major threat to public health with a yearly estimated global burden of 2.9 million cases. Although the majority of existing models for the…
Background: Although the outbreak of human monkeypox (mpox) caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV) has slowed down around the world, little is known about the short-term dynamics of this disease. This limited information highlights the…
Motivated by the analysis of social networks, we study a model of random networks that has both a given degree distribution and a tunable clustering coefficient. We consider two types of growth processes on these graphs: diffusion and…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
Infectious diseases on farms pose both public and animal health risks, so understanding how they spread between farms is crucial for developing disease control strategies to prevent future outbreaks. We develop novel Bayesian nonparametric…
Infectious disease spread is a multi-scale process composed of within-host (biological) and between-host (social) drivers and disentangling them from each other is a central challenge in epidemiology. Here, we introduce VIBES, a multi-scale…
The spreading of an epidemic is determined by the connectiviy patterns which underlie the population. While it has been noted that a virus spreads more easily on a network in which global distances are small, it remains a great challenge to…
Infectious diseases typically spread over a contact network with millions of individuals, whose sheer size is a tremendous challenge to analysing and controlling an epidemic outbreak. For some contact networks, it is possible to group…
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented unprecedented challenges worldwide, with its impact varying significantly across different geographic and socioeconomic contexts. This study employs a clustering analysis to examine the diversity of…
Many vector-borne disease epidemic models neglect the fact that in modern human civilization, social awareness as well as self-defence system are overwhelming against advanced propagation of the disease. News are becoming more effortlessly…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…
Predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases in response to incursions requires knowledge of both host and vector demographics in advance of an outbreak. Whereas host population data is typically available, for novel disease introductions…
The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) incidence in India is currently experiencing exponential rise but with apparent spatial variation in growth rate and doubling time rate. We classify the states into five clusters with low to the high-risk…
The spatial propagation of many livestock infectious diseases critically depends on the animal movements among premises; so the knowledge of movement data may help us to detect, manage and control an outbreak. The identification of robust…
In the new paradigm of health-centric governance, policy makers are in a constant need for appropriate metrics and estimates in order to determine the best policies in a non-arbitrary fashion. Thus, in this paper, a compartmentalized model…
The evolution of RNA viruses such as HIV, Hepatitis C and Influenza virus occurs so rapidly that the viruses' genomes contain information on past ecological dynamics. Hence, we develop a phylodynamic method that enables the joint estimation…
Despite extensive control efforts over the centuries, cholera remains a globally significant health issue. Seasonal emergence of cholera cases has been reported, particularly in the Bengal delta region, which is often synchronized with…