相关论文: Conformal Prediction Under Distribution Shift: A C…

Assessing the probability of occurrence of extreme events is a crucial issue in various fields like finance, insurance, telecommunication or environmental sciences. In a multivariate framework, the tail dependence is characterized by the…

Conformal Prediction (CP) has recently received a tremendous amount of interest, leading to a wide range of new theoretical and methodological results for predictive inference with formal theoretical guarantees. However, the vast majority…

Many existing interpretation methods are based on Partial Dependence (PD) functions that, for a pre-trained machine learning model, capture how a subset of the features affects the predictions by averaging over the remaining features.…

Large language models adapt to new tasks through in-context learning (ICL) without parameter updates. Current theoretical explanations for this capability assume test tasks are drawn from a distribution similar to that seen during…

Typically, mathematical simulation studies on COVID-19 pandemic forecasting are based on deterministic differential equations which assume that both the number ($n$) of individuals in various epidemiological classes and the time ($t$) on…

Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either…

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success across a variety of tasks, yet they often suffer from unreliable probability estimates. As a result, they can be overconfident in their predictions. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a…

Interpreting predictions from tree ensemble methods such as gradient boosting machines and random forests is important, yet feature attribution for trees is often heuristic and not individualized for each prediction. Here we show that…

Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing…

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) designed in simulators behave differently in the real-world. Once they are deployed in the real-world, we would hence like to predict system failures during runtime. We propose robust predictive runtime…

Graphs play a crucial role in data mining and machine learning, representing real-world objects and interactions. As graph datasets grow, managing large, decentralized subgraphs becomes essential, particularly within federated learning…

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

As a natural extension to the standard conformal prediction method, several conformal risk control methods have been recently developed and applied to various learning problems. In this work, we seek to control the conformal risk in…

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage, assuming exchangeable data. However, real-world scenarios often involve distribution shifts that violate exchangeability, leading to…

Conformal prediction provides rigorous, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees, but often yields prohibitively large prediction sets in structured domains such as routing, planning, or sequential recommendation. We introduce "graph-based…

Evaluating treatment effect heterogeneity widely informs treatment decision making. At the moment, much emphasis is placed on the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect via flexible machine learning algorithms. While these…

Despite achieving excellent performance on benchmarks, deep neural networks often underperform in real-world deployment due to sensitivity to minor, often imperceptible shifts in input data, known as distributional shifts. These shifts are…

This study focuses on the problem of credit default prediction, builds a modeling framework based on machine learning, and conducts comparative experiments on a variety of mainstream classification algorithms. Through preprocessing, feature…

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…