相关论文: Spatiotemporal Detection and Uncertainty Visualiza…

Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth's climate, primarily by affecting cloud formation and scattering visible radiation. However, aerosol-related physical processes in climate simulations are highly uncertain. Constraining these…

Climate change is intensifying wildfire risks globally, making reliable forecasting critical for adaptation strategies. While machine learning shows promise for wildfire prediction from Earth observation data, current approaches lack…

In the past decades, boreal summers have been characterized by an increasing number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, including persistent heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall events with significant…

The low frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and…

Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…

Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…

Weather regimes provide a useful framework for describing large-scale atmospheric variability and its impacts on regional weather. Despite extensive study, there is still no universally accepted definition or method for identifying weather…

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

Atmospheric flows exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations manifested as the fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse power law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations on all space-time…

Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution.…

Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…

The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…

Global warming presents an unprecedented challenge to our planet however comprehensive understanding remains hindered by geographical biases temporal limitations and lack of standardization in existing research. An end to end visual…

The low-frequency variability of the mid-latitude atmosphere involves complex nonlinear and chaotic dynamical processes posing predictability challenges. It is characterized by sporadically recurring, often long-lived patterns of…

One of the most relevant weather regimes in the mid-latitudes atmosphere is the persistent deviation from the approximately zonally symmetric jet to the emergence of blocking patterns. Such configurations are usually connected to…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…

Extreme events are the major weather-related hazard for humanity. It is then of crucial importance to have a good understanding of their statistics and to be able to forecast them. However, lack of sufficient data makes their study…

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…

Atmospheric blocking exerts a profound influence on mid-latitude circulation, yet its predictability remains elusive due to intrinsic non-linearities and sensitivity to initial-conditions. While blocking dynamics have been extensively…