相关论文: Accuracy of Uniform Inference on Fine Grid Points

Many modern estimators require bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals because either no analytic standard error is available or the distribution of the parameter of interest is non-symmetric. It remains however unclear how to…

We consider the problem of deriving uniform confidence bands for the mean of a monotonic stochastic process, such as the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a random variable, based on a sequence of i.i.d.~observations. Our approach…

Probability predictions from binary regressions or machine learning methods ought to be calibrated: If an event is predicted to occur with probability $x$, it should materialize with approximately that frequency, which means that the…

In statistical inference, confidence set procedures are typically evaluated based on their validity and width properties. Even when procedures achieve rate-optimal widths, confidence sets can still be excessively wide in practice due to…

While widely used as a general method for uncertainty quantification, the bootstrap method encounters difficulties that raise concerns about its validity in practical applications. This paper introduces a new resampling-based method, termed…

Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and…

In this work, we present methodologies for the quantification of confidence in bottom-up coarse-grained models for molecular and macromolecular systems. Coarse-graining methods have been extensively used in the past decades in order to…

Several multiscale methods account for sub-grid scale features using coarse scale basis functions. For example, in the Multiscale Finite Volume method the coarse scale basis functions are obtained by solving a set of local problems over…

Ensemble learning combines several individual models to obtain a better generalization performance. In this work we present a practical method for estimating the joint power of several classifiers. It differs from existing approaches which…

Confidence bounds are an essential tool for rigorously quantifying the uncertainty of predictions. They are a core component in many sequential learning and decision-making algorithms, with tighter confidence bounds giving rise to…

We study the numerical bounds obtained using a conformal-bootstrap method - advocated in ref. [1] but never implemented so far - where different points in the plane of conformal cross ratios $z$ and $\bar z$ are sampled. In contrast to the…

Single hidden layer feedforward neural networks can represent multivariate functions that are sums of ridge functions. These ridge functions are defined via an activation function and customizable weights. The paper deals with best…

Local grid refinement aims to optimise the relationship between accuracy of the results and number of grid nodes. In the context of the finite volume method no single local refinement criterion has been globally established as optimum for…

In this paper, we investigate the supremum-norm generalization error and the uniform inference for a specific class of kernel regression methods, namely the kernel gradient flows. Under the widely adopted capacity-source condition framework…

Bootstrap is a principled and powerful frequentist statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. Unfortunately, standard bootstrap methods are computationally intensive due to the need of drawing a large i.i.d. bootstrap sample to…

For the kernel estimator of the quantile density function (the derivative of the quantile function), I show how to perform the boundary bias correction, establish the rate of strong uniform consistency of the bias-corrected estimator, and…

The Bonferroni adjustment, or the union bound, is commonly used to study rate optimality properties of statistical methods in high-dimensional problems. However, in practice, the Bonferroni adjustment is overly conservative. The extreme…

Quantifying uncertainty using confidence regions is a central goal of statistical inference. Despite this, methodologies for confidence bands in Functional Data Analysis are still underdeveloped compared to estimation and hypothesis…

While clustering is ubiquitously used across science and industry, uncertainty in cluster assignments is rarely quantified with rigorous guarantees. We propose a novel conformal inference framework for clustering that returns confidence…

In this paper, we propose to construct confidence bands by bootstrapping the debiased kernel density estimator (for density estimation) and the debiased local polynomial regression estimator (for regression analysis). The idea of using a…