相关论文: Unreliable Uncertainty Estimates with Monte Carlo …

Deep Learning is becoming an increasingly important way to produce accurate hydrological predictions across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Uncertainty estimations are critical for actionable hydrological forecasting, and while…

Deep neural networks offer numerous potential applications across geoscience, for example, one could argue that they are the state-of-the-art method for predicting faults in seismic datasets. In quantitative reservoir characterization…

Deep learning (DL) networks have recently been shown to outperform other segmentation methods on various public, medical-image challenge datasets [3,11,16], especially for large pathologies. However, in the context of diseases such as…

Deep Learning-based image super-resolution (SR) has been gaining traction with the aid of Generative Adversarial Networks. Models like SRGAN and ESRGAN are constantly ranked between the best image SR tools. However, they lack principled…

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

We consider the problem of detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples in deep reinforcement learning. In a value based reinforcement learning setting, we propose to use uncertainty estimation techniques directly on the agent's value…

In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…

Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty…

Monte Carlo sampling has become a major vehicle for approximate inference in Bayesian networks. In this paper, we investigate a family of related simulation approaches, known collectively as quasi-Monte Carlo methods based on deterministic…

Deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable success in various fields, including seismology. However, one major challenge in deep learning is the presence of mislabeled examples. Additionally, accurately estimating model uncertainty…

Accurate proton dose calculation using Monte Carlo (MC) is computationally demanding in workflows like robust optimisation, adaptive replanning, and probabilistic inference, which require repeated evaluations. To address this, we develop a…

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Instance segmentation has witnessed promising advancements through deep neural network-based algorithms. However, these models often exhibit incorrect predictions with unwarranted confidence levels. Consequently, evaluating prediction…

Mean Opinion Score (MOS) prediction has made significant progress in specific domains. However, the unstable performance of MOS prediction models across diverse samples presents ongoing challenges in the practical application of these…

While Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold the promise of being flexible, well-calibrated statistical models, inference often requires approximations whose consequences are poorly understood. We study the quality of common variational…

Background and objective: Uncertainty quantification is a pivotal field that contributes to realizing reliable and robust systems. It becomes instrumental in fortifying safe decisions by providing complementary information, particularly…

In this article, we introduce the concept of model confidence bounds (MCB) for variable selection in the context of nested models. Similarly to the endpoints in the familiar confidence interval for parameter estimation, the MCB identifies…

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While…

Each year a growing number of wind farms are being added to power grids to generate electricity. The power curve of a wind turbine, which exhibits the relationship between generated power and wind speed, plays a major role in assessing the…