相关论文: Unreliable Uncertainty Estimates with Monte Carlo …

Bayesian inference provides a methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and deep learning methods. Variational inference and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are used to…

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Neural activation coverage (NAC) is a recently-proposed technique for out-of-distribution detection and generalization. We build upon this promising foundation and extend the method to work as an uncertainty estimation technique for…

Objective: Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated promise in automated cardiac magnetic resonance image segmentation. However, when using CNNs in a large real-world dataset, it is important to quantify segmentation…

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Despite of its importance for safe machine learning, uncertainty quantification for neural networks is far from being solved. State-of-the-art approaches to estimate neural uncertainties are often hybrid, combining parametric models with…

In this work, we propose the use of dropouts as a Bayesian estimator for increasing the generalizability of a deep neural network (DNN) for speech enhancement. By using Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, we show that the DNN performs better…

Estimating statistical uncertainties allows autonomous agents to communicate their confidence during task execution and is important for applications in safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving. In this work, we present the…

Data-Driven Product Development (DDPD) leverages data to learn the relationship between product design specifications and resulting properties. To discover improved designs, we train a neural network on past experiments and apply Projected…

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen…

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we…

We propose a multi-fidelity neural network surrogate sampling method for the uncertainty quantification of physical/biological systems described by ordinary or partial differential equations. We first generate a set of low/high-fidelity…

Measuring uncertainty is a promising technique for detecting adversarial examples, crafted inputs on which the model predicts an incorrect class with high confidence. But many measures of uncertainty exist, including predictive en- tropy…

Although deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in audio classification tasks, their uncertainty calibration are still under-explored. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction…

We introduce ensembles of stochastic neural networks to approximate the Bayesian posterior, combining stochastic methods such as dropout with deep ensembles. The stochastic ensembles are formulated as families of distributions and trained…

Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

The Monte Carlo (MC) method is the most common technique used for uncertainty quantification, due to its simplicity and good statistical results. However, its computational cost is extremely high, and, in many cases, prohibitive.…

Due to the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian approach to inverse problems has recently gained popularity in applied mathematics, physics, and engineering. However, traditional Bayesian inference methods based on Markov…

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become a popular choice for e-learning thanks to their great flexibility. However, due to large numbers of learners and their diverse backgrounds, it is taxing to offer real-time support. Learners…

Uncertainty estimation is essential to make neural networks trustworthy in real-world applications. Extensive research efforts have been made to quantify and reduce predictive uncertainty. However, most existing works are designed for…