相关论文: Assessing model error in counterfactual worlds

Time series forecasting has become increasingly critical in real-world scenarios, where future sequences are influenced not only by historical patterns but also by forthcoming events. In this context, forecasting must dynamically adapt to…

Inverse problems use physical measurements along with a computational model to estimate the parameters or state of a system of interest. Errors in measurements and uncertainties in the computational model lead to inaccurate estimates. This…

Conformal prediction and scenario optimization constitute two important classes of statistical learning frameworks to certify decisions made using data. They have found numerous applications in control theory, machine learning and robotics.…

Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform…

Counterfactual reasoning from logged data has become increasingly important for many applications such as web advertising or healthcare. In this paper, we address the problem of learning stochastic policies with continuous actions from the…

The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

Counterfactual thinking describes a psychological phenomenon that people re-infer the possible results with different solutions about things that have already happened. It helps people to gain more experience from mistakes and thus to…

Despite the increasing effectiveness of language models, their reasoning capabilities remain underdeveloped. In particular, causal reasoning through counterfactual question answering is lacking. This work aims to bridge this gap. We first…

An agent with an inaccurate model of its environment faces a difficult choice: it can ignore the errors in its model and act in the real world in whatever way it determines is optimal with respect to its model. Alternatively, it can take a…

Variational inequalities are modelling tools used to capture a variety of decision-making problems arising in mathematical optimization, operations research, game theory. The scenario approach is a set of techniques developed to tackle…

The deviation test belong to core tools in point process statistics, where hypotheses are typically tested considering differences between an empirical summary function and its expectation under the null hypothesis, which depend on a…

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine learning models always make a prediction, even when it is likely to be inaccurate. This behavior should be avoided in many decision support applications, where mistakes can have severe consequences. Albeit already studied in 1970,…

We propose an approach to estimate how individuals' expectations influence their responses to a counterfactual change. The approach relies on average partial effects, which recover counterfactual impacts under conditions that we specify. We…

Counterfactual explanations are viewed as an effective way to explain machine learning predictions. This interest is reflected by a relatively young literature with already dozens of algorithms aiming to generate such explanations. These…

The estimation of an f-divergence between two probability distributions based on samples is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Most works study this problem under very weak assumptions, in which case it is provably…

Model interpretations are often used in practice to extract real world insights from machine learning models. These interpretations have a wide range of applications; they can be presented as business recommendations or used to evaluate…

The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g. regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim…

As machine learning is increasingly used to inform consequential decision-making (e.g., pre-trial bail and loan approval), it becomes important to explain how the system arrived at its decision, and also suggest actions to achieve a…

Counterfactual explanations can be obtained by identifying the smallest change made to a feature vector to qualitatively influence a prediction; for example, from 'loan rejected' to 'awarded' or from 'high risk of cardiovascular disease' to…