相关论文: Modeling smooth and localized mortality patterns a…

The determination of the shapes of mortality curves, the estimation and projection of mortality patterns over time, and the investigation of differences in mortality patterns across different small underdeveloped populations have received…

Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…

Many people living in low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data, including many household sample surveys, are used to estimate…

Although the analysis of human mortality has a well-established history, the attempt to accurately forecast future death-rate patterns for different age groups and time horizons still attracts active research. Such a predictive focus has…

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…

This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…

Short-term disease forecasting at specific discrete spatial resolutions has become a high-impact decision-support tool in health planning. However, when the number of areas is very large obtaining predictions can be computationally…

This paper presents a significant advancement in the estimation of the Composite Link Model within a penalized likelihood framework, specifically designed to address indirect observations of grouped count data. While the model is effective…

This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a…

Several methods have been proposed in the spatial statistics literature for the analysis of big data sets in continuous domains. However, new methods for analyzing high-dimensional areal data are still scarce. Here, we propose a scalable…

In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…

Worldwide, many millions of people die suddenly and unexpectedly each year, either with or without a prior history of cardiovascular disease. Such events are sparse (once in a lifetime), many victims will not have had prior investigations…

Statistical models used to estimate the spatio-temporal pattern in disease risk from areal unit data represent the risk surface for each time period with known covariates and a set of spatially smooth random effects. The latter act as a…

The identification of patient subgroups with comparable event-risk dynamics plays a key role in supporting informed decision-making in clinical research. In such settings, it is important to account for the inherent dependence that arises…

Epidemiological investigations of regionally aggregated spatial data often involve detecting spatial health disparities among neighboring regions on a map of disease mortality or incidence rates. Analyzing such data introduces spatial…

A discrete spatial lattice can be cast as a network structure over which spatially-correlated outcomes are observed. A second network structure may also capture similarities among measured features, when such information is available.…

Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…

Continuous-time multi-state survival models can be used to describe health-related processes over time. In the presence of interval-censored times for transitions between the living states, the likelihood is constructed using transition…

We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…