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Probabilities of causation are fundamental to individual-level explanation and decision making, yet they are inherently counterfactual and not point-identifiable from data in general. Existing bounds either disregard available covariates,…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-02-17 Yuxuan Xie , Ang Li

In the realm of causal inference, Potential Outcomes (PO) and Structural Causal Models (SCM) are recognized as the principal frameworks.However, when it comes to Layer 3 valuations -- counterfactual queries deeply entwined with…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-02-09 Heyang Gong

Synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) are commonly used for benchmarking causal structure learning algorithms. However, the variances and pairwise correlations in SCM data tend to increase along the causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-18 Weronika Ormaniec , Scott Sussex , Lars Lorch , Bernhard Schölkopf , Andreas Krause

We address the problem of causal discovery from data, making use of the recently proposed causal modeling framework of modular structural causal models (mSCM) to handle cycles, latent confounders and non-linearities. We introduce…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-08-31 Patrick Forré , Joris M. Mooij

Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a fundamental challenge in causal inference, especially in the presence of latent confounders. This paper focuses on estimating causal effects in Gaussian Linear Structural Causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-09 Aurghya Maiti , Prateek Jain

Neural networks are hypothesized to implement interpretable causal mechanisms, yet verifying this requires finding a causal abstraction -- a simpler, high-level Structural Causal Model (SCM) faithful to the network under interventions.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-02 Amir Asiaee

Constraint-based causal discovery is widely used for learning causal structures, but heavy reliance on conditional independence (CI) testing makes it computationally expensive in high-dimensional settings. To mitigate this limitation, many…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Zheng Li , Feng Xie , Shenglan Nie , Xichen Guo , Ruxin Wang , Hao Zhang

Unexpected stimuli induce "error" or "surprise" signals in the brain. The theory of predictive coding promises to explain these observations in terms of Bayesian inference by suggesting that the cortex implements variational inference in a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-18 Eli Sennesh , Hao Wu , Tommaso Salvatori

Large contingency tables summarizing categorical variables arise in many areas. For example in biology when a large number of biomarkers are cross-tabulated according to their discrete expression level. Interactions of the variables are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2009-11-17 Corinne Dahinden , Markus Kalisch , Peter Bühlmann

A new causal discovery method, Structural Agnostic Modeling (SAM), is presented in this paper. Leveraging both conditional independencies and distributional asymmetries, SAM aims to find the underlying causal structure from observational…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-07-26 Diviyan Kalainathan , Olivier Goudet , Isabelle Guyon , David Lopez-Paz , Michèle Sebag

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Robins (1998) introduced marginal structural models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. He established…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-09-17 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen , Haben Michael , Yifan Cui

Simulating longitudinal data from specified marginal structural models is a crucial but challenging task for evaluating causal inference methods and informing study design. While data generation typically proceeds in a fully conditional…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-25 Xi Lin , Daniel de Vassimon Manela , Chase Mathis , Jens Magelund Tarp , Robin J. Evans

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Without loss of generality, existing machine learning techniques may learn spurious correlation dependent on the domain, which exacerbates the generalization of models in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this issue, recent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-18 Bin Qin , Jiangmeng Li , Yi Li , Xuesong Wu , Yupeng Wang , Wenwen Qiang , Jianwen Cao

We study how to extend the use of the diffusion model to answer the causal question from the observational data under the existence of unmeasured confounders. In Pearl's framework of using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to capture the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-15 Tatsuhiro Shimizu

Predicting the effect of unseen interventions is a fundamental research question across the data sciences. It is well established that in general such questions cannot be answered definitively from observational data. This realization has…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-27 Alexis Bellot

For sensitivity analysis against unmeasured confounding, we build on the marginal sensitivity model (MSM) and propose a new model, deMSM, by incorporating a second constraint on the shift of potential outcome distributions caused by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-21 Yi Zhang , Wenfu Xu , Zhiqiang Tan

Probabilities of causation provide principled ways to assess causal relationships but face computational challenges due to partial identifiability and latent confounding. This paper introduces both algorithmic simplifications, significantly…

The past decade has seen an increasing body of literature devoted to the estimation of causal effects in network-dependent data. However, the validity of many classical statistical methods in such data is often questioned. There is an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-05-31 Oleg Sofrygin , Romain Neugebauer , Mark J. van der Laan