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Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) frequently utilize covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) (e.g., stratified block randomization) and commonly suffer from imperfect compliance. This paper studies the identification and inference for the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-05-02 Federico A. Bugni , Mengsi Gao , Filip Obradovic , Amilcar Velez

Treatment effect estimation can assist in effective decision-making in e-commerce, medicine, and education. One popular application of this estimation lies in the prediction of the impact of a treatment (e.g., a promotion) on an outcome…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-26 Xiaofeng Lin , Guoxi Zhang , Xiaotian Lu , Han Bao , Koh Takeuchi , Hisashi Kashima

This paper studies the identification and estimation of policy effects when treatment status is binary and endogenous. We introduce a new class of marginal treatment effects (MTEs) based on the influence function of the functional…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-08-08 Julian Martinez-Iriarte , Yixiao Sun

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in oncology often allow control group participants to crossover to experimental treatments, a practice that, while often ethically necessary, complicates the accurate estimation of long-term treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-12 Harlan Campbell , Nicholas Latimer , Jeroen P Jansen , Shannon Cope

We study the problem of selecting the best heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimator from a collection of candidates in settings where the treatment effect is fundamentally unobserved. We cast estimator selection as a multiple testing…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-25 Jiayi Guo , Zijun Gao

Suppose one wishes to estimate the effect of a binary treatment on a binary endpoint conditional on a post-randomization quantity in a counterfactual world in which all subjects received treatment. It is generally difficult to identify this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-11-12 Alex Luedtke , Jiacheng Wu

Augmenting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external real-world data (RWD) has the potential to improve the finite sample efficiency of treatment effect estimators. We describe using adaptive targeted maximum likelihood estimation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-30 Sky Qiu , Jens Tarp , Andrew Mertens , Mark van der Laan

We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in a semi-supervised learning setting, where a very small proportion of the entire set of observations are labeled with the true outcome but features predictive of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-27 David Cheng , Ashwin Ananthakrishnan , Tianxi Cai

Statistical methods to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions are increasingly challenged by the inherent interconnectedness of units. Specifically, a recent flurry of methods research has addressed the problem of interference between…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-07-24 Corwin M. Zigler , Georgia Papadogeorgou

Randomized experiments in which the treatment of a unit can affect the outcomes of other units are becoming increasingly common in healthcare, economics, and in the social and information sciences. From a causal inference perspective, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-14 Daniel L. Sussman , Edoardo M. Airoldi

This study investigates the identification power gained by combining experimental data, in which treatment is randomized, with observational data, in which treatment is self-selected, for distributional treatment effect (DTE) parameters.…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-24 Shosei Sakaguchi

I set up a potential outcomes framework to analyze spillover effects using instrumental variables. I characterize the population compliance types in a setting in which spillovers can occur on both treatment take-up and outcomes, and provide…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-12-15 Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare

We consider design-based causal inference for spatial experiments in which treatments may have effects that bleed out and feed back in complex ways. Such spatial spillover effects violate the standard ``no interference'' assumption for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-06 Ye Wang , Cyrus Samii , Haoge Chang , P. M. Aronow

In this paper the estimation of the distribution function for potential outcomes to receiving or not receiving a treatment is studied. The approach is based on weighting observed data on the basis on estimated propensity score. A weighted…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-04-30 Pier Luigi Conti , Livia De Giovanni

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

We study targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) of the average treatment effect in a semiparametric regression model whose mean function is indexed by a finite-dimensional parameter, while the additive error distribution is left…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-20 Mijeong Kim

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

When estimating treatment effects with two-way fixed effects (2WFE) models, researchers often use matching as a pre-processing step when the parallel trends assumption is thought to hold conditionally on covariates. Specifically, in a first…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-02-17 Yihong Liu , Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare

This paper provides a set of methods for quantifying the robustness of treatment effects estimated using the unconfoundedness assumption (also known as selection on observables or conditional independence). Specifically, we estimate and do…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-01-01 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier , Linqi Zhang