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Accurate and reliable energy forecasting is essential for power grid operators who strive to minimize extreme forecasting errors that pose significant operational challenges and incur high intra-day trading costs. Incorporating planning…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2026-05-13 Raffael Theiler , Leandro Von Krannichfeldt , Giovanni Sansavini , Michael F. Howland , Olga Fink

Transformer-based architectures have achieved remarkable success in natural language processing and computer vision. However, their performance in multivariate long-term forecasting often falls short compared to simpler linear baselines.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-09 Dizhen Liang

Time-series forecasts are essential for planning and decision-making in many domains. Explainability is key to building user trust and meeting transparency requirements. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) is a popular explainable AI…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-24 Matthias Hertel , Sebastian Pütz , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer , Benjamin Schäfer

Highly accurate different horizon-based wind speed forecasting facilitates a better modern power system. This paper proposed a novel astute hybrid wind speed forecasting model and applied it to different horizons. The proposed hybrid…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-09-02 M. Madhiarasan , Partha Pratim Roy

Ensembling is a powerful technique for improving the accuracy of machine learning models, with methods like stacking achieving strong results in tabular tasks. In time series forecasting, however, ensemble methods remain underutilized, with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-20 Nathanael Bosch , Oleksandr Shchur , Nick Erickson , Michael Bohlke-Schneider , Caner Türkmen

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is a crucial aspect of modern society, playing a pivotal role in facilitating long-term planning and developing early warning systems. While many Transformer-based models have recently been…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-31 Jiaxin Gao , Wenbo Hu , Yuntian Chen

Forecasting long-term time series in IoT environments remains a significant challenge due to the non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics of sensor signals. Furthermore, error accumulation causes a decrease in forecast quality when…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-10 Qianyang Li , Xingjun Zhang , Peng Tao , Shaoxun Wang , Yancheng Pan , Jia Wei

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-02-06 Jiecheng Lu , Xu Han , Shihao Yang

Time series forecasting plays a vital role across scientific, industrial, and environmental domains, especially when dealing with high-dimensional and nonlinear systems. While Transformer-based models have recently achieved state-of-the-art…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-05 Ali Forootani , Mohammad Khosravi , Masoud Barati

A thorough regulation of building energy systems translates in relevant energy savings and in a better comfort for the occupants. Algorithms to predict the thermal state of a building on a certain time horizon with a good confidence are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-01 Alfredo V Clemente , Alessandro Nocente , Massimiliano Ruocco

Time series forecasting is a fundamental task emerging from diverse data-driven applications. Many advanced autoregressive methods such as ARIMA were used to develop forecasting models. Recently, deep learning based methods such as DeepAr,…

Transformer-based methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in time series forecasting (TSF) by capturing positional and semantic topological relationships among input tokens. However, it remains unclear whether existing…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-10-27 Jianqi Zhang , Wenwen Qiang , Jingyao Wang , Jiahuan Zhou , Changwen Zheng , Hui Xiong

Transformer-based models have emerged as powerful tools for multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF). However, existing Transformer models often fall short of capturing both intricate dependencies across variate and temporal dimensions…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-10 Juncheng Liu , Chenghao Liu , Gerald Woo , Yiwei Wang , Bryan Hooi , Caiming Xiong , Doyen Sahoo

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-12-17 Xixi Li , Fotios Petropoulos , Yanfei Kang

Long-short range time series forecasting is essential for predicting future trends and patterns over extended periods. While deep learning models such as Transformers have made significant strides in advancing time series forecasting, they…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-16 Wenqing Zhang , Junming Huang , Ruotong Wang , Changsong Wei , Wenqian Huang , Yuxin Qiao

Although Transformers excel in natural language processing, their extension to time series forecasting remains challenging due to insufficient consideration of the differences between textual and temporal modalities. In this paper, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-09 Zhipeng Liu , Peibo Duan , Xuan Tang , Baixin Li , Yongsheng Huang , Mingyang Geng , Changsheng Zhang , Bin Zhang , Binwu Wang

Accurate univariate forecasting remains a pressing need in real-world systems, such as energy markets, hydrology, retail demand, and IoT monitoring, where signals are often intermittent and horizons span both short- and long-term. While…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-26 Kyrylo Yemets , Mykola Lukashchuk , Ivan Izonin

Model editing techniques are essential for efficiently updating knowledge in large language models (LLMs). However, the effectiveness of existing approaches degrades in massive editing scenarios, particularly when evaluated with practical…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-02-25 Yanbo Dai , Zhenlan Ji , Zongjie Li , Shuai Wang

In various scientific and engineering fields, the primary research areas have revolved around physics-based dynamical systems modeling and data-driven time series analysis. According to the embedding theory, dynamical systems and time…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-10 Jiaxi Hu , Bowen Zhang , Qingsong Wen , Fugee Tsung , Yuxuan Liang

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is an important problem across various fields such as healthcare, financial services, manufacturing or physics detector monitoring. Accurately identifying when unexpected errors or faults occur…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-26 Laura Boggia , Rafael Teixeira de Lima , Bogdan Malaescu