相关论文: Causal and Predictive Modeling of Short-Horizon Ma…

The intricate behavior patterns of financial markets are influenced by fundamental, technical, and psychological factors. During times of high volatility and regime shifts causes many traditional strategies like trend-following or…

There are inefficiencies in financial markets, with unexploited patterns in price, volume, and cross-sectional relationships. While many approaches use large-scale transformers, we take a domain-focused path: feed-forward and recurrent…

Financial market prediction is a challenging application of machine learning, where even small improvements in directional accuracy can yield substantial value. Most models struggle to exceed 55--57\% accuracy due to high noise,…

While traditional equity factor investing relies heavily on slow-moving fundamental accounting metrics, these models frequently suffer from factor crowding and miss real-time, sentiment-driven market dislocations. This study explores how…

This study proposes a behaviorally-informed multi-factor stock selection framework that integrates short-cycle technical alpha signals with deep learning. We design a dual-task multilayer perceptron (MLP) that jointly predicts five-day…

The unpredictability and volatility of the stock market render it challenging to make a substantial profit using any generalised scheme. Many previous studies tried different techniques to build a machine learning model, which can make a…

Although conventional machine learning algorithms have been widely adopted for stock-price predictions in recent years, the massive volume of specific labeled data required are not always available. In contrast, meta-learning technology…

Conventional momentum strategies, despite their proven efficacy in generating alpha, frequently suffer from the "Winner's Curse", a structural vulnerability in which high performing assets exhibit clustered volatility and severe drawdowns…

Machine learning driven trading strategies have garnered a lot of interest over the past few years. There is, however, limited consensus on the ideal approach for the development of such trading strategies. Further, most literature has…

We demonstrate that machine learning methods provide a powerful framework for modelling conditional asymmetric risk. Using a large cross-section of US stocks and a comprehensive set of firm characteristics, we show that allowing for…

We propose a unified multi-tasking framework to represent the complex and uncertain causal process of financial market dynamics, and then to predict the movement of any type of index with an application on the monthly direction of the…

We develop a rigorous walk-forward validation framework for algorithmic trading designed to mitigate overfitting and lookahead bias. Our methodology combines interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation with reinforcement learning and…

We use multi-class machine learning classifiers to identify the stocks that outperform or underperform other stocks. The resulting long-short portfolios achieve annual Sharpe ratios of 1.67 (value-weighted) and 3.35 (equal-weighted), with…

Alphas are stock prediction models capturing trading signals in a stock market. A set of effective alphas can generate weakly correlated high returns to diversify the risk. Existing alphas can be categorized into two classes: Formulaic…

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various…

This paper considers a portfolio trading strategy formulated by algorithms in the field of machine learning. The profitability of the strategy is measured by the algorithm's capability to consistently and accurately identify stock indices…

We test whether simple, interpretable state variables-trend and momentum-can generate durable out-of-sample alpha in one of the world's most liquid assets, gold. Using a rolling 10-year training and 6-month testing walk-forward from 2015 to…

Cryptocurrency markets exhibit pronounced momentum effects and regime-dependent volatility, presenting both opportunities and challenges for systematic trading strategies. We propose AdaptiveTrend, a multi-component algorithmic trading…

Accurate volatility forecasting is essential in banking, investment, and risk management, because expectations about future market movements directly influence current decisions. This study proposes a hybrid modelling framework that…

This paper studies forward-looking stock-stock correlation forecasting for S\&P 500 constituents and evaluates whether learned correlation forecasts can improve graph-based clustering used in basket trading strategies. We cast 10-day ahead…