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Bayesian inference is useful to obtain a predictive distribution with a small generalization error. However, since posterior distributions are rarely evaluated analytically, we employ the variational Bayesian inference or sampling method to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-03 Yohei Saito , Shun Kimura , Koujin Takeda

In order to cluster or partition data, we often use Expectation-and-Maximization (EM) or Variational approximation with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which is a parametric probability density function represented as a weighted sum of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-07-04 Ji Won Yoon

The nested error regression model is a useful tool for analyzing clustered (grouped) data, and is especially used in small area estimation. The classical nested error regression model assumes normality of random effects and error terms, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-05-16 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

We consider Bayesian estimation of a hierarchical linear model (HLM) from partially observed data, assumed to be missing at random, and small sample sizes. A vector of continuous covariates $C$ includes cluster-level partially observed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-03 Dongho Shin , Yongyun Shin , Nao Hagiwara

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been progressively incorporated within the statistician's toolbox as an alternative sampling method in settings when standard Metropolis-Hastings is inefficient. HMC generates a Markov chain on an augmented…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-02-09 Julien Stoehr , Alan Benson , Nial Friel

Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are well-established tools for probabilistic exploration of dependence structures using precision matrices. We develop a Bayesian method to incorporate covariate information in this GGMs setup in a nonlinear…

We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-07-28 Naveen Naidu Narisetty , Xuming He

We use Bayesian model selection paradigms, such as group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator priors, to facilitate generalized additive model selection. Our approach allows for the effects of continuous predictors to be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-29 Virginia X. He , Matt P. Wand

Sampling from an unnormalized probability distribution is a fundamental problem in machine learning with applications including Bayesian modeling, latent factor inference, and energy-based model training. After decades of research,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-03 Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan

Sampling-based inference has seen a surge of interest in recent years. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has emerged as a powerful algorithm that leverages concepts from Hamiltonian dynamics to efficiently explore complex target distributions.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-04-07 Arghya Mukherjee , Dootika Vats

Under missing-not-at-random (MNAR) sample selection bias, the performance of a prediction model is often degraded. This paper focuses on one classic instance of MNAR sample selection bias where a subset of samples have non-randomly missing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-23 Huy Mai , Xintao Wu

The statistical analysis of cosmological data often assumes a Gaussian sampling distribution and relies on covariance matrices estimated from simulations. In this setting, the likelihood function of the data is not Gaussian but is instead a…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2026-04-22 Alan Heavens , Lorne Whiteway , Elena Sellentin

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo are state-of-the-art methods for taking samples from high-dimensional distributions with a differentiable density function. To generate samples, they numerically integrate…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-05-20 Jakob Robnik , Reuben Cohn-Gordon , Uroš Seljak

Let $Y$ be a Gaussian vector whose components are independent with a common unknown variance. We consider the problem of estimating the mean $\mu$ of $Y$ by model selection. More precisely, we start with a collection…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-04-03 Yannick Baraud , Christophe Giraud , Sylvie Huet

The widely recommended procedure of Bayesian model averaging is flawed in the M-open setting in which the true data-generating process is not one of the candidate models being fit. We take the idea of stacking from the point estimation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-10-15 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman

We introduce Bayesian hierarchical models for predicting high-dimensional tabular survey data which can be distributed from one or multiple classes of distributions (e.g., Gaussian, Poisson, Binomial, etc.). We adopt a Bayesian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-18 Saikat Nandy , Scott H. Holan , Jonathan R. Bradley , Christopher K. Wikle

This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-01-18 Gregory F. Cooper

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is widely used for sampling from high dimensional target distributions with densities known up to proportionality. While HMC exhibits favorable scaling properties in high dimensions, it struggles with strongly…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-07-30 Joonha Park

Bayesian graphical modeling provides an appealing way to obtain uncertainty estimates when inferring network structures, and much recent progress has been made for Gaussian models. These models have been used extensively in applications to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-07-06 Michael Finegold , Mathias Drton