相关论文: Projecting Hurricane Risk in Atlantic Canada under…
Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…
This study assesses global offshore wind energy resources, wake-induced losses, array layout optimisation potential and climate change impacts. Global offshore ambient potential is first mapped based on reanalysis data. Wake-induced losses…
Climate change impacts and adaptations are the subjects to ongoing issues that attract the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide…
Planners who wish to manage coastal flood risk with long-lived infrastructure (e.g., levees, floodwalls) under a constrained computational budget face a tradeoff. Simulating a large number of future time periods or scenarios with different…
The fate of cities under natural hazards depends not only on hazard intensity but also on the coupling of structural damage, a collective process that remains poorly understood. Here we show that urban structural damage exhibits…
The Texan electric network in the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by Tropical Cyclones (TC) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here, we introduce a new…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…
Information about the hydro-meteorological parameters during the extreme sea storms is of significant importance for the sustainable development in the context of flood risk for the coastal areas. Usually there is a lack of sufficiently…
In many coastal communities, the risks driven by storm surges are motivating substantial investments in flood risk management. The design of adaptive risk management strategies, however, hinges on the ability to detect future changes in…
In recent decades, the intensification of wildfire activity in western Canada has resulted in substantial socio-economic and environmental losses. Accurate wildfire risk prediction is hindered by the intrinsic stochasticity of ignition and…
Hurricane track forecasting remains a significant challenge due to the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean. Although AI-based numerical weather prediction models, such as Google Graphcast operation, have…
Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms. Thus, to increase flood…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
During hurricane seasons, emergency managers and other decision makers need accurate and `on-time' information on potential storm surge impacts. Fully dynamical computer models, such as the ADCIRC tide, storm surge, and wind-wave model take…
Tropical cyclone-induced coastal hazards can significantly damage coastal infrastructure, and these risks may intensify under future climate change. As a result, there is increasing interest in conducting comprehensive assessments of…
This study develops a statistical conditional approach to evaluate climate model performance in wind speed and direction and to project their future changes under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario over inland and…
Aerodynamic models are developed to describe coherent structures and transport processes in hurricanes moving over open seas. The models consist of the lower boundary layer and upper adiabatic layer. Except friction at the air/sea…
Long-horizon vessel trajectory forecasting under real ocean conditions is critical for collision avoidance, traffic management, and route planning. However, achieving accurate predictions is challenging due to long-range temporal…
Hurricane evacuation, ordered to save lives of people of coastal regions, generates high traffic demand with increased crash risk. To mitigate such risk, transportation agencies need to anticipate highway locations with high crash risks to…