相关论文: From Noise to Laws: Regularized Time-Series Foreca…

We present PRISM, a unified framework that enables multiple image generation and editing tasks in a single foundational model. Starting from a pre-trained text-to-image diffusion model, PRISM proposes an effective fine-tuning strategy to…

Diffusion models are now commonly used to solve inverse problems in computational imaging. However, most diffusion-based inverse solvers require complete knowledge of the forward operator to be used. In this work, we introduce a novel…

While deep learning models excel at predictive tasks, they often overfit due to their complex structure and large number of parameters, causing them to memorize training data, including noise, rather than learn patterns that generalize to…

Predicting cross-sectional stock returns is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and evolving market regimes. Classical factor models offer interpretability but limited flexibility, while deep learning models achieve strong…

Long-term forecasting of multivariate urban data poses a significant challenge due to the complex spatiotemporal dependencies inherent in such datasets. This paper presents DST, a novel multivariate time-series forecasting model that…

Time series forecasting has been an essential field in many different application areas, including economic analysis, meteorology, and so forth. The majority of time series forecasting models are trained using the mean squared error (MSE).…

We consider a new framework where a continuous, though bounded, random variable has unobserved bounds that vary over time. In the context of univariate time series, we look at the bounds as parameters of the distribution of the bounded…

Induction benefits from useful priors. Penalized regression approaches, like ridge regression, shrink weights toward zero but zero association is usually not a sensible prior. Inspired by simple and robust decision heuristics humans use, we…

We present a general variational framework for the training of freeform nonlinearities in layered computational architectures subject to some slope constraints. The regularization that we add to the traditional training loss penalizes the…

We introduce DeRegiME -- Deep Regime Mixture of Experts -- a direct multi-horizon probabilistic forecaster that separates latent uncertainty regimes from the underlying signal and softly assigns each forecast location to learned recurring…

Diffusion models have become a leading paradigm in generative AI, with score estimation via denoising score matching as a central component. While recent theory provides strong statistical guarantees, it typically relies on…

We propose a method for learning linear models whose predictive performance is robust to causal interventions on unobserved variables, when noisy proxies of those variables are available. Our approach takes the form of a regularization term…

We present an algorithm for robust model predictive control with consideration of uncertainty and safety constraints. Our framework considers a nonlinear dynamical system subject to disturbances from an unknown but bounded uncertainty set.…

Within the statistical and machine learning literature, regularization techniques are often used to construct sparse (predictive) models. Most regularization strategies only work for data where all predictors are treated identically, such…

Long-horizon language agents accumulate conversation history far faster than any fixed context window can hold, making memory management critical to both answer accuracy and serving cost. Existing approaches either expand the context window…

Multivariate time series classification supports applications from wearable sensing to biomedical monitoring and demands models that can capture both short-term patterns and multi-scale temporal dependencies. Despite recent advances,…

We present a conditional diffusion model - ConDiSim, for simulation-based inference of complex systems with intractable likelihoods. ConDiSim leverages denoising diffusion probabilistic models to approximate posterior distributions,…

Early warning indicators often suffer from the shortness and coarse-graining of real-world time series. Furthermore, the typically strong and correlated noise contributions in real applications are severe drawbacks for statistical measures.…

Estimation in generalized linear models (GLM) is complicated by the presence of constraints. One can handle constraints by maximizing a penalized log-likelihood. Penalties such as the lasso are effective in high dimensions, but often lead…

Developing reliable and generalizable deep learning systems for medical imaging faces significant obstacles due to spurious correlations, data imbalances, and limited text annotations in datasets. Addressing these challenges requires…