相关论文: Do Language Models Update their Forecasts with New…
Evaluating the accuracy of outputs generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) is especially important in the climate science and policy domain. We introduce the Expert Confidence in Climate Statements (ClimateX) dataset, a novel, curated,…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are a transformational technology, fundamentally changing how people obtain information and interact with the world. As people become increasingly reliant on them for an enormous variety of tasks, a body of…
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, but their ability to forecast future events remains understudied. A year ago, large language models struggle to come close to the accuracy of a…
With the widespread adoption of vibe coding, understanding the reasoning and robustness of Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for their reliable use in programming tasks. While recent studies assess LLMs' ability to predict program…
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable capabilities in question answering and reasoning thanks to their extensive parametric memory. However, their knowledge is inherently limited by the scope of their pre-training data, while…
Accurate load forecasting is crucial for maintaining the power balance between generators and consumers,particularly with the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, which introduce significant intermittent volatility. With the…
Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing every aspect of society. They are increasingly used in problem-solving tasks to substitute human assessment and reasoning. LLMs are trained on what humans write and are thus exposed to human…
The growing complexity of power systems has made accurate load forecasting more important than ever. An increasing number of advanced load forecasting methods have been developed. However, the static design of current methods offers no…
As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in user-facing applications, building trust and maintaining safety by accurately quantifying a model's confidence in its prediction becomes even more important. However, finding…
Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for automated grading, but their outputs can be unreliable. Rather than improving grading accuracy directly, we address a complementary problem: \textit{predicting when an LLM grader is likely to be…
We investigate how large language models (LLMs) fail when tabular data in an otherwise canonical representation is subjected to semantic and structural distortions. Our findings reveal that LLMs lack an inherent ability to detect and…
Large language models (LLMs) acquire most of their knowledge during pretraining, which ties them to a fixed snapshot of the world and makes adaptation to continuously evolving knowledge challenging. As facts, entities, and events change…
Many recent papers have studied the development of superforecaster-level event forecasting LLMs. While methodological problems with early studies cast doubt on the use of LLMs for event forecasting, recent studies with improved evaluation…
Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate strong few-shot generalization through in-context learning, yet their reasoning in dynamic and stochastic environments remains opaque. Prior studies mainly focus on static tasks and overlook the…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have unveiled remarkable capabilities in understanding and generating both natural language and code, but LLM reasoning is prone to hallucination and struggle with complex, novel scenarios, often getting stuck…
The impressive linguistic abilities of large language models (LLMs) have recommended them as models of human sentence processing, with some conjecturing a positive 'quality-power' relationship (Wilcox et al., 2023), in which language…
Although language model scores are often treated as probabilities, their reliability as probability estimators has mainly been studied through calibration, overlooking other aspects. In particular, it is unclear whether language models…
Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident yet incorrect answers, which can lead to risky failures in real-world applications. We study whether post-training can make a model's self-assessment explicit: when the model is…
We examine how large language models (LLMs) interpret historical stock returns and compare their forecasts with estimates from a crowd-sourced platform for ranking stocks. While stock returns exhibit short-term reversals, LLM forecasts…
We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can predict whether they will succeed on a given task and whether their predictions improve as they progress through multi-step tasks. We also investigate whether LLMs can learn from…