相关论文: Bayesian Calibration and Model Assessment of Cell …

Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data-model integration. Efficient data-model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a…

While existing mathematical descriptions can accurately account for phenomena at microscopic scales (e.g. molecular dynamics), these are often high-dimensional, stochastic and their applicability over macroscopic time scales of physical…

Calibration refers to the estimation of unknown parameters which are present in computer experiments but not available in physical experiments. An accurate estimation of these parameters is important because it provides a scientific…

We consider the problem of calibrating an imperfect computer model using experimental data. To compensate the misspecification of the computer model and make more accurate predictions, a discrepancy function is often included and modeled…

1. Challenging calibration of complex models can be approached by using prior knowledge on the parameters. However, the natural choice of Bayesian inference can be computationally heavy when relying on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

In the drug discovery process, where experiments can be costly and time-consuming, computational models that predict drug-target interactions are valuable tools to accelerate the development of new therapeutic agents. Estimating the…

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Due to the need for robust uncertainty quantification, Bayesian neural learning has gained attention in the era of deep learning and big data. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods typically implement Bayesian inference which faces…

We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights.…

In this contribution we present an accelerated optimization-based approach for combined state and parameter reduction of a parametrized linear control system which is then used as a surrogate model in a Bayesian inverse setting. Following…

Multi-fidelity methods leverage low-cost surrogate models to speed up computations and make occasional recourse to expensive high-fidelity models to establish accuracy guarantees. Because surrogate and high-fidelity models are used…

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Ordinary differential equation models are nowadays widely used for the mechanistic description of biological processes and their temporal evolution. These models typically have many unknown and non-measurable parameters, which have to be…

This work deals with the inference of catalytic recombination parameters from plasma wind tunnel experiments for reusable thermal protection materials. One of the critical factors affecting the performance of such materials is the…

Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging.…

We provide another look at the statistical calibration problem in computer models. This viewpoint is inspired by two overarching practical considerations of computer models: (i) many computer models are inadequate for perfectly modeling…

Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use…

We propose a novel calibration method for computer simulators, dealing with the problem of covariate shift. Covariate shift is the situation where input distributions for training and test are different, and ubiquitous in applications of…

Bayesian inference typically relies on a large number of model evaluations to estimate posterior distributions. Established methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) can become computationally…

Innovation in synthetic biology often still depends on large-scale experimental trial-and-error, domain expertise, and ingenuity. The application of rational design engineering methods promise to make this more efficient, faster, cheaper…