相关论文: Huracan: A skillful end-to-end data-driven system …

With the rapid development of data-driven machine learning (ML) models in meteorology, typhoon track forecasts have become increasingly accurate. However, current ML models still face challenges, such as underestimating typhoon intensity…

Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system.…

Due to limited computational resources, medium-range temperature forecasts typically rely on low-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which are prone to systematic and random errors. We propose a method that integrates a…

An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…

Recent advancements in evaluating matrix-exponential functions have opened the doors to the practical use of exponential time-integration methods in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The success of exponential methods in shallow water…

Ensemble forecasting is crucial for improving weather predictions, especially for forecasts of extreme events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional NWP models is highly computationally expensive. ML models…

Combining forecasts from multiple numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have shown substantial benefit over the use of individual forecast products. Although combination, in a broad sense, is widely used in meteorological forecasting,…

Accurate and timely weather forecasts are critical for high-impact decisions in modern society. Machine-learning-based weather prediction is emerging as an alternative for producing initial conditions, forecasts, and even both in end-to-end…

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models have quickly emerged as a promising methodology for accurate medium-range global weather forecasting. Here, we introduce the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), a data driven…

To address the uncertainty in outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, ensembles of forecasts are used. To obtain such an ensemble of forecasts the NWP model is run multiple times, each time with different formulations and/or…

Motion forecasting is crucial in enabling autonomous vehicles to anticipate the future trajectories of surrounding agents. To do so, it requires solving mapping, detection, tracking, and then forecasting problems, in a multi-step pipeline.…

A hybrid data assimilation algorithm is developed for complex dynamical systems with partial observations. The method starts with applying a spectral decomposition to the entire spatiotemporal fields, followed by creating a machine learning…

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful…

We present the first application of spectral nudging in a probabilistic ensemble forecasting framework, combining the physics-based ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System ensemble (IFS-ENS) with forecasts from the probabilistic machine-learned…

Accurate weather and climate modeling is critical for both scientific advancement and safeguarding communities against environmental risks. Traditional approaches rely heavily on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which simulate…

Data-driven approaches, most prominently deep learning, have become powerful tools for prediction in many domains. A natural question to ask is whether data-driven methods could also be used to predict global weather patterns days in…

The integration of observational data into numerical models, known as data assimilation (DA), is fundamental for making Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) possible, with breathtaking success over the past 60 years (Bauer et al. 2015).…

AI weather models now rival leading numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems in medium-range skill. However, almost all still rely on NWP data assimilation (DA) to provide initial conditions, tying them to expensive infrastructure and…

Data assimilation is a central problem in many geophysical applications, such as weather forecasting. It aims to estimate the state of a potentially large system, such as the atmosphere, from sparse observations, supplemented by prior…

This study presents a hybrid neural network model for short-term (1-6 hours ahead) surface wind speed forecasting, combining Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with observational data from ground weather stations. It relies on the MeteoNet…