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We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2026-04-14 Stéphane Crépey , Noufel Frikha , Azar Louzi

Risk-sensitive planning aims to identify policies maximizing some tail-focused metrics in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Such an optimization task can be very costly for the most widely used and interpretable metrics such as threshold…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-07-09 Alexandre Marthe , Samuel Bounan , Aurélien Garivier , Claire Vernade

The problem of constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) is investigated, where an agent aims to maximize the expected accumulated discounted reward subject to multiple constraints on its utilities/costs. A new primal-dual approach is…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-10-22 Tianjiao Li , Ziwei Guan , Shaofeng Zou , Tengyu Xu , Yingbin Liang , Guanghui Lan

The goal of reinforcement learning is estimating a policy that maps states to actions and maximizes the cumulative reward of a Markov Decision Process (MDP). This is oftentimes achieved by estimating first the optimal (reward) value…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-29 Sergio Rozada , Antonio G. Marques

This study investigates the mean-variance (MV) trade-off in reinforcement learning (RL), an instance of the sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Our objective is to obtain MV-efficient policies whose means and variances are located…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-14 Masahiro Kato , Kei Nakagawa , Kenshi Abe , Tetsuro Morimura , Kentaro Baba

In this paper, building on the formulation of quantum Markov decision processes (q-MDPs) presented in our previous work [{\sc N.~Saldi, S.~Sanjari, and S.~Y\"{u}ksel}, {\em Quantum Markov Decision Processes: General Theory, Approximations,…

量子物理 · 物理学 2025-02-24 Naci Saldi , Sina Sanjari , Serdar Yuksel

We present an alternative view for the study of optimal control of partially observed Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). We first revisit the traditional (and by now standard) separated-design method of reducing the problem to fully…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-12-20 Serdar Yüksel

A large class of decision making under uncertainty problems can be described via Markov decision processes (MDPs) or partially observable MDPs (POMDPs), with application to artificial intelligence and operations research, among others.…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-09-10 Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Ugo Rosolia , Michel D. Ingham , Richard M. Murray , Aaron D. Ames

This paper addresses allocation methodologies for a risk measure inherited from ruin theory. Specifically, we consider a dynamic value-at-risk (VaR) measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the ultimate ruin…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2021-03-31 Guusje Delsing , Michel Mandjes , Peter Spreij , Erik Winands

We study the evaluation of a policy under best- and worst-case perturbations to a Markov decision process (MDP), using transition observations from the original MDP, whether they are generated under the same or a different policy. This is…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-11-05 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu , Wen Sun , Kaiwen Wang

We consider a dynamic programming (DP) approach to approximately solving an infinite-horizon constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) problem with a fixed initial-state for the expected total discounted-reward criterion with a…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2023-08-08 Hyeong Soo Chang

Markov decision processes (MDP) are a well-established model for sequential decision-making in the presence of probabilities. In robust MDP (RMDP), every action is associated with an uncertainty set of probability distributions, modelling…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-12-16 Tobias Meggendorfer , Maximilian Weininger , Patrick Wienhöft

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems become increasingly integrated into various domains, ensuring that they align with human values becomes critical. This paper introduces a novel formalism to quantify the alignment between AI systems…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-12-27 Fazl Barez , Philip Torr

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an institutional measure of risk favored by financial regulators. VaR may be interpreted as a quantile of future portfolio values conditional on the information available, where the most common quantile used is 95%.…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2016-05-18 Khizar Qureshi

Mixed observable Markov decision processes (MOMDPs) are a modeling framework for autonomous systems described by both fully and partially observable states. In this work, we study the problem of synthesizing a control policy for MOMDPs that…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-03-03 Ugo Rosolia , Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Richard M. Murray , Aaron D. Ames

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a standard model for sequential decision-making problems and are widely used across many scientific areas, including formal methods and artificial intelligence (AI). MDPs do, however, come with the…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-12-11 Marnix Suilen , Thom Badings , Eline M. Bovy , David Parker , Nils Jansen

Constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) are used as a decision-making framework to study the long-run performance of a stochastic system. It is well-known that a stationary optimal policy of a CMDP problem under discounted cost…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-06-02 V Varagapriya , Vikas Vikram Singh , Abdel Lisser

We consider policy evaluation in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision problems (MDPs) with infinite spaces. We reformulate this task a compositional stochastic program with a function-valued decision variable that belongs to a…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-05-19 Alec Koppel , Garrett Warnell , Ethan Stump , Peter Stone , Alejandro Ribeiro

We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-03-18 Xiaochun Liu , Richard Luger

Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are receiving much attention in learning a robust policy which is less sensitive to environment changes. There are an increasing number of works analyzing sample-efficiency of robust MDPs. However,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-09-13 Wenhao Yang , Han Wang , Tadashi Kozuno , Scott M. Jordan , Zhihua Zhang
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