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Preferential Bayesian optimisation (PBO) deals with optimisation problems where the objective function can only be accessed via preference judgments, such as "this is better than that" between two candidate solutions (like in A/B tests or…

We provide a formal definition and study the basic properties of partially ordered chains (POC). These systems were proposed to model textures in image processing and to represent independence relations between random variables in…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Missing data remains a very common problem in large datasets, including survey and census data containing many ordinal responses, such as political polls and opinion surveys. Multiple imputation (MI) is usually the go-to approach for…

Generalized linear models, such as logistic regression, are widely used to model the association between a treatment and a binary outcome as a function of baseline covariates. However, the coefficients of a logistic regression model…

We consider the problem of analyzing the probabilistic performance of first-order methods when solving convex optimization problems drawn from an unknown distribution only accessible through samples. By combining performance estimation…

Missing data are inevitable in clinical trials, and trials that produce categorical ordinal responses are not exempted from this. Typically, missing values in the data occur due to different missing mechanisms, such as missing completely at…

We propose a novel Bayesian model framework for discrete ordinal and count data based on conditional transformations of the responses. The conditional transformation function is estimated from the data in conjunction with an a priori chosen…

Bayesian optimization (BO) has gained attention as an efficient algorithm for black-box optimization of expensive-to-evaluate systems, where the BO algorithm iteratively queries the system and suggests new trials based on a probabilistic…

The robust Poisson method is becoming increasingly popular when estimating the association of exposures with a binary outcome. Unlike the logistic regression model, the robust Poisson method yields results that can be interpreted as risk or…

Pooled logistic regression models are commonly applied in survival analysis. However, the standard implementation can be computationally demanding, which is further exacerbated when using the nonparametric bootstrap for inference. To ease…

Standard (network) meta-analysis methods for medical test accuracy evaluation analyse the data separately for each test threshold - wasting data - unless every study reports all thresholds. Previously proposed "multiple threshold" models…

It is commonly believed that Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms are highly efficient for optimizing numerically costly functions. However, BO is not often compared to widely different alternatives, and is mostly tested on narrow sets of…

Extrapolating treatment effects from related studies is a promising strategy for designing and analyzing clinical trials in situations where achieving an adequate sample size is challenging. Bayesian methods are well-suited for this…

The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method is the most popular statistical method for the analysis of univariate extremes. Even though there is a rich applied literature on Bayesian inference for the POT, the asymptotic theory for such proposals…

Bayesian optimisation (BO) is widely used to optimise stochastic black box functions. While most BO approaches focus on optimising conditional expectations, many applications require risk-averse strategies and alternative criteria…

It is often desired that ordinal regression models yield unimodal predictions. However, in many recent works this characteristic is either absent, or implemented using soft targets, which do not guarantee unimodal outputs at inference. In…

Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have…

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on…

Unlike standard linear regression, quantile regression captures the relationship between covariates and the conditional response distribution as a whole, rather than only the relationship between covariates and the expected value of the…