相关论文: The Electoral Consequences of Natural Disasters: A…

We study an influence network of voters subjected to correlated disordered external perturbations, and solve the dynamical equations exactly for fully connected networks. The model has a critical phase transition between disordered unimodal…

In the United States electoral system, a candidate is elected indirectly by winning a majority of electoral votes cast by individual states, the election usually being decided by the votes cast by a small number of "swing states" where the…

Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying…

The literature on the relationship between environmental factors such as climatic changes and natural hazards and human mobility (both internal and international) is characterized by heterogeneous results: some contributions highlight the…

There have been several instances in our nation's history in which the presidential candidate who received the most popular votes did not win the presidency. Using a principal components analysis of recent presidential elections, we…

An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We seek a general description of state collapse spanning…

We consider synchronous iterative voting, where voters are given the opportunity to strategically choose their ballots depending on the outcome deduced from the previous collective choices.We propose two settings for synchronous iterative…

Studies have shown that exposure to air pollution, even at low levels, significantly increases mortality. As regulatory actions are becoming prohibitively expensive, robust evidence to guide the development of targeted interventions to…

Due to their often unexpected nature, natural and man-made disasters are difficult to monitor and detect for journalists and disaster management response teams. Journalists are increasingly relying on signals from social media to detect…

Voting can abstractly model any decision-making scenario and as such it has been extensively studied over the decades. Recently, the related literature has focused on quantifying the impact of utilizing only limited information in the…

Sequential tropical cyclone hazards--two tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall in the same region within a short time--are becoming increasingly likely. This study investigates situational preparedness dynamics for six sequential TC…

When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…

This paper presents a novel approach to distinguish the impact of duration-dependent forces and adverse selection on the exit rate from unemployment by leveraging variation in the length of layoff notices. I formulate a Mixed Hazard model…

Random population dynamics with catastrophes (events pertaining to possible elimination of a large portion of the population) has a long history in the mathematical literature. In this paper we study an ergodic model for random population…

Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human…

Social media has become an essential channel for posting disaster-related information, which provide governments and relief agencies real-time data for better disaster management. However, research in this field has not received sufficient…

The challenge of nowcasting and forecasting the effect of natural disasters (e.g. earthquakes, floods, hurricanes) on assets, people and society is of primary importance for assessing the ability of such systems to recover from extreme…

Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…

Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to climate change. And during such events, citizens are turning to social media…

A set of 50,000 artificial Earth impacting asteroids was used to obtain, for the first time, information about the dominance of individual impact effects such as wind blast, overpressure shock, thermal radiation, cratering, seismic shaking,…