相关论文: Time Series Forecastability Measures

Performance metrics (error measures) are vital components of the evaluation frameworks in various fields. The intention of this study was to overview of a variety of performance metrics and approaches to their classification. The main goal…

We study the chaoticity and the predictability of a turbulent flow on the basis of high-resolution direct numerical simulations at different Reynolds numbers. We find that the Lyapunov exponent of turbulence, which measures the exponential…

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Energy systems modeling frequently relies on time series data, whether observed or forecast. This is particularly the case, for example, in capacity planning models that use hourly production and load data forecast to occur over the coming…

Particle accelerators are complex facilities that produce large amounts of structured data and have clear optimization goals as well as precisely defined control requirements. As such they are naturally amenable to data-driven research…

The Lyapunov exponent is well-known in deterministic dynamical systems as a measure for quantifying chaos and detecting coherent regions in physically evolving systems. In this Letter, we show how the Lyapunov exponent can be unified with…

We propose criteria that define a trend for time series with inherent multi-scale features. We call this trend the {\it tendency} of a time series. The tendency is defined empirically by a set of criteria and captures the large-scale…

Hierarchical time-series forecasting is essential for demand prediction across various industries. While machine learning models have obtained significant accuracy and scalability on such forecasting tasks, the interpretability of their…

In this paper, we study the stability problem of a stochastic, nonlinear, discrete-time system. We introduce a linear transfer operator-based Lyapunov measure as a new tool for stability verification of stochastic systems. Weaker…

Time-series forecasting is an essential task with wide real-world applications across domains. While recent advances in deep learning have enabled time-series forecasting models with accurate predictions, there remains considerable debate…

We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical…

This paper considers a general class of parameter-driven models for time series of counts. A comprehensive simulation study is conducted to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of three estimators: the maximum likelihood estimators of the…

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as…

Interpretation methods to reveal the internal reasoning processes behind machine learning models have attracted increasing attention in recent years. To quantify the extent to which the identified interpretations truly reflect the intrinsic…

Time series forecasting is a subject of significant scientific and industrial importance. Despite the widespread utilization of forecasting methods, there is a dearth of research aimed at comprehending the conditions under which these…

This paper is concerned with the study of the stability of dynamical systems evolving on time scales. We first {formalize the notion of matrix measures on time scales, prove some of their key properties and make use of this notion to study…

We introduce data to predictive control, D2PC, a framework to facilitate the design of robust and predictive controllers from data. The proposed framework is designed for discrete-time stochastic linear systems with output measurements and…

Forecasts of product demand are essential for short- and long-term optimization of logistics and production. Thus, the most accurate prediction possible is desirable. In order to optimally train predictive models, the deviation of the…

Evaluating robustness under temporal distribution shift remains an open challenge. Existing metrics quantify the average decline in performance, but fail to capture how models adapt to evolving data. As a result, temporal degradation is…

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is widely recognized as a central challenge in data mining and machine learning. LTSF has increasingly evolved into a benchmark-driven ''GAME,'' where models are ranked, compared, and declared…