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The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a foundational metric in causal inference, widely used to assess intervention efficacy in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, in many applications -- particularly in healthcare -- this static…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-23 Julianna Piskorz , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Harry Amad , Mihaela van der Schaar

We generalize the potential outcome framework to time series with an intervention by defining causal effects on stochastic processes. Interventions in dynamic systems alter not only outcome levels but also evolutionary dynamics -- changing…

Randomized trials and observational studies, more often than not, run over a certain period of time. The treatment effect evolves during this period which provides crucial insights into the treatment response and the long-term effects. Many…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-04-13 Shu Li , Peter Bühlmann

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-12-30 Manqing Liu , David R. Bellamy , Andrew L. Beam

Understanding true influence in social media requires distinguishing correlation from causation--particularly when analyzing misinformation spread. While existing approaches focus on exposure metrics and network structures, they often fail…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-05-27 Lin Tian , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-18 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE).…

Regression discontinuity designs are widely used when treatment assignment is determined by whether a running variable exceeds a predefined threshold. However, most research focuses on estimating local causal effects at the threshold,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-06 Xinqin Feng , Wenjie Hu , Pu Yang , Tingyu Li , Xiao-Hua Zhou

We consider the problem of partial identification, the estimation of bounds on the treatment effects from observational data. Although studied using discrete treatment variables or in specific causal graphs (e.g., instrumental variables),…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-18 Vahid Balazadeh , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Rahul G. Krishnan

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-01-16 Sukjin Han

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-23 Michael C. Burkhart , Gabriel Ruiz

Spatial interference (SI) occurs when the treatment at one location affects the outcomes at other locations. Accounting for spatial interference in spatiotemporal settings poses further challenges as interference violates the stable unit…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-02 Sahara Ali , Omar Faruque , Jianwu Wang

We consider design-based causal inference for spatial experiments in which treatments may have effects that bleed out and feed back in complex ways. Such spatial spillover effects violate the standard ``no interference'' assumption for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-06 Ye Wang , Cyrus Samii , Haoge Chang , P. M. Aronow

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate causal effects across a variety of domains. However, classical causal inference approaches rely on critical independence assumptions that are violated by network interference, when the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-18 Mayleen Cortez , Matthew Eichhorn , Christina Lee Yu

In causal inference, a fundamental task is to estimate the effect resulting from a specific treatment, which is often handled with inverse probability weighting. Despite an abundance of attention to the advancement of this task, most…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-30 Kuan-Hsun Wu

Scholars from diverse fields increasingly rely on high-frequency spatio-temporal data. Yet, causal inference with these data remains challenging due to spatial spillover and temporal carryover effects. We develop methods to estimate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-03 Lingxiao Zhou , Kosuke Imai , Jason Lyall , Georgia Papadogeorgou

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Zihang Wang , Razieh Nabi , Benjamin B. Risk
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