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We develop new changes-in-changes (CIC) and distributional synthetic controls (DSC) types of methods when there exists group-level heterogeneity. For CIC, we allow individuals to belong to heterogeneous groups, extending Athey and Imbens…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-02-20 Songnian Chen , Junlong Feng

In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-10-21 George Karabatsos , Elizabeth Talbott , Stephen G. Walker

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

Doubly robust estimators of causal effects are a popular means of estimating causal effects. Such estimators combine an estimate of the conditional mean of the outcome given treatment and confounders (the so-called outcome regression) with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-01-17 David Benkeser , Weixin Cai , Mark J van der Laan

We propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with right-censored survival outcomes and many weak invalid instruments, motivated by Mendelian randomization in biobank studies where classical methods may fail. We adopt an…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-06 Qiushi Bu , Wen Su , Xingqiu Zhao , Zhonghua Liu

Unmeasured confounding can severely bias causal effect estimates from spatiotemporal observational data, especially when the confounders do not vary smoothly in time and space. In this work, we develop a method for addressing unmeasured…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-29 Jiaxi Wu , Alexander Franks

Semiparametric efficient estimation of various multi-valued causal effects, including quantile treatment effects, is important in economic, biomedical, and other social sciences. Under the unconfoundedness condition, adjustment for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-20 Xiaohong Chen , Ying Liu , Shujie Ma , Zheng Zhang

NOTE: This preprint has a flawed theoretical formulation. Please avoid it and refer to the ICLR22 publication https://openreview.net/forum?id=q7n2RngwOM. Also, arXiv:2109.15062 contains some new ideas on unobserved Confounding. As an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

Standard causal inference characterizes treatment effect through averages, but the counterfactual distributions could be different in not only the central tendency but also spread and shape. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-04 Steven G. Xu , Shu Yang , Brian J. Reich

In most nonrandomized observational studies, differences between treatment groups may arise not only due to the treatment but also because of the effect of confounders. Therefore, causal inference regarding the treatment effect is not as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-07-04 Debashis Ghosh

Since the initial work by Ashenfelter and Card in 1985, the use of difference-in-differences (DID) study design has become widespread. However, as pointed out in the literature, this popular quasi-experimental design also suffers estimation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-31 Xiaoming Wang , Sukun Wang

Estimation of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) is an important topic of causal inference in econometrics and statistics. This problem seems to be often treated as a simple modification or extension of that of estimating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-08-07 Heng Shu , Zhiqiang Tan

The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in a staggered-adoption panel is estimated using an intercept-augmented synthetic-control (SCM) estimator. A weighted parallel trends plus an intercept shift, together with mild regularity…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-08 Michael Guggisberg

Recent methods to improve generalizations from nonrandom samples typically invoke assumptions such as the strong ignorability of sample selection that are often controversial in practice to derive point estimates. Rather than focus on the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-01-06 Wendy Chan

Understanding the effect of a particular treatment or a policy pertains to many areas of interest, ranging from political economics, marketing to healthcare. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric algorithm for detecting the effects of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-24 Davide Viviano , Jelena Bradic

Difference-in-differences is based on a parallel trends assumption, which states that changes over time in average potential outcomes are independent of treatment assignment, possibly conditional on covariates. With time-varying treatments,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-25 Nicholas Illenberger , Iván Díaz , Audrey Renson

Background: Policy evaluation studies that assess how state-level policies affect health-related outcomes are foundational to health and social policy research. The relative ability of newer analytic methods to address confounding, a key…

This paper studies the identification, estimation, and inference of long-term (binary) treatment effect parameters when balanced panel data is not available, or consists of only a subset of the available data. We develop a new estimator:…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-02-04 Christophe Bellégo , David Benatia , Vincent Dortet-Bernardet

This study investigates treatment effect estimation in the semi-supervised setting, also can be interpreted as prediction-powered inference. In our setting, we can use not only the standard triple of covariates, treatment indicator, and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-05 Masahiro Kato

In estimating the average treatment effect in observational studies, the influence of confounders should be appropriately addressed. To this end, the propensity score is widely used. If the propensity scores are known for all the subjects,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-08 Chengyao Tang , Yi Zhou , Ao Huang , Satoshi Hattori