相关论文: Cutting the Geopolitical Ties: Foreign Exchange Re…

World currency network constitutes one of the most complex structures that is associated with the contemporary civilization. On a way towards quantifying its characteristics we study the cross correlations in changes of the daily foreign…

We study the relationship between foreign debt and GDP growth using a panel dataset of 50 countries from 1997 to 2015. We find that economic growth correlates positively with foreign debt and that the relationship is causal in nature by…

In a system containing a large number of interacting stochastic processes, there will typically be many non-zero correlation coefficients. This makes it difficult to either visualize the system's inter-dependencies, or identify its dominant…

Central banks manage about \$12 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, influencing global exchange rates and asset prices. However, some of the largest holders of reserves report minimal information about their currency composition,…

We analyze structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We analyze daily time series of FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We group…

By comparing the historical patterns of currency development, this paper pointed out the inevitability of the development of digital currency and the relationship between digital currency and the digital economy. With the example of China,…

Global financial systems are undergoing strategic shifts as geopolitical tensions reshape international trade and payments. The United States (US)-China trade war, sanctions regimes, and rising concerns over the weaponization of financial…

This paper investigates and compares currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies difference…

This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960--2024, compiled…

This study examines the relationship between GDP growth and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) across developed economies (G7, EU-15, OECD) and emerging markets (BRICS). We integrate Random Forest machine learning (non-linear regression)…

The cross-correlations between the exchange rate fluctuations of 74 currencies over the period 1995-2012 are analyzed in this paper. The eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix exhibits a bulk which approximately matches the…

This paper reports empirical evidence that a neural networks model is applicable to the statistically reliable prediction of foreign exchange rates. Time series data and technical indicators such as moving average, are fed to neural nets to…

Financial markets are complex adaptive systems, and are commonly studied as complex networks. Most of such studies fall short in two respects: they do not account for non-linearity of the studied relationships, and they create one network…

By analyzing the foreign exchange market data of various currencies, we derive a hierarchical taxonomy of currencies constructing minimal-spanning trees. Clustered structure of the currencies and the key currency in each cluster are found.…

We extend the opinion formation approach to probe the world influence of economical organizations. Our opinion formation model mimics a battle between currencies within the international trade network. Based on the United Nations Comtrade…

In todays global economy, accuracy in predicting macro-economic parameters such as the foreign the exchange rate or at least estimating the trend correctly is of key importance for any future investment. In recent times, the use of…

Foreign currency exchange plays a vital role for trading of currency in the financial market. Due to its volatile nature, prediction of foreign currency exchange is a challenging task. This paper presents different machine learning…

In this paper we propose to extend the separable temporal exponential random graph model (STERGM) to account for time-varying network- and actor-specific effects. Our application case is the network of international major conventional…

We investigate topology and temporal evolution of the foreign currency exchange market viewed from a weighted network perspective. Based on exchange rates for a set of 46 currencies (including precious metals), we construct different…

This article examines how emerging economies use countercyclical monetary policies to manage economic crises and fluctuations in dominant currencies, such as the US dollar and the euro. Global economic cycles are marked by phases of…