相关论文: Evaluating LLMs on Real-World Forecasting Against …

Users of Large Language Models (LLMs) often perceive these models as intelligent entities with human-like capabilities. However, the extent to which LLMs' capabilities truly approximate human abilities remains a topic of debate. In this…

This paper presents a comparative analysis evaluating the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) against traditional macro time series forecasting approaches. In recent times, LLMs have surged in popularity for forecasting due to their…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance across various natural language processing tasks, yet their proficiency in mathematical reasoning remains a key challenge. Addressing the gap between natural and mathematical…

What makes large language models (LLMs) impressive is also what makes them hard to evaluate: their diversity of uses. To evaluate these models, we must understand the purposes they will be used for. We consider a setting where these…

Pre-trained large language models (LLM) have emerged as a powerful tool for simulating various scenarios and generating output given specific instructions and multimodal input. In this work, we analyze the specific use of LLM to enhance a…

Although large language models (LLMs) have been assessed for general medical knowledge using licensing exams, their ability to support clinical decision-making, such as selecting medical calculators, remains uncertain. We assessed nine…

Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks in various domains. Despite their impressive performance, they can be unreliable due to factual errors in their generations. Assessing their…

Previous work adopts large language models (LLMs) as evaluators to evaluate natural language process (NLP) tasks. However, certain shortcomings, e.g., fairness, scope, and accuracy, persist for current LLM evaluators. To analyze whether…

This study explores the potential of large language models (LLMs) to enhance expert forecasting through ensemble learning. Leveraging the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) dataset, we propose a comprehensive…

Subjective well-being is a key metric in economic, medical, and policy decision-making. As artificial intelligence provides scalable tools for modelling human outcomes, it is crucial to evaluate whether large language models (LLMs) can…

Many recent papers have studied the development of superforecaster-level event forecasting LLMs. While methodological problems with early studies cast doubt on the use of LLMs for event forecasting, recent studies with improved evaluation…

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved strong performance on reasoning benchmarks, yet their ability to solve real-world problems requiring end-to-end workflows remains unclear. Mathematical modeling competitions provide a stringent…

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a promising alternative to traditional survey methods, potentially enhancing efficiency and reducing costs. In this study, we use LLMs to create virtual populations that answer survey questions, enabling…

Large language models (LLMs) have recently shown impressive performance on tasks involving reasoning, leading to a lively debate on whether these models possess reasoning capabilities similar to humans. However, despite these successes, the…

Under the lens of Marr's levels of analysis, we critique and extend two claims about language models (LMs) and language processing: first, that predicting upcoming linguistic information based on context is central to language processing,…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to predict human behavior. We propose a measure for evaluating how much knowledge a pretrained LLM brings to such a prediction: its equivalent sample size, defined as the amount of…

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly operate in environments where they encounter social information such as other agents' answers, tool outputs, or human recommendations. In humans, such inputs influence judgments in ways that depend…

Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing every aspect of society. They are increasingly used in problem-solving tasks to substitute human assessment and reasoning. LLMs are trained on what humans write and are thus exposed to human…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools in artificial intelligence (AI), exhibiting remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks such as text generation, reasoning, and decision-making. While their success has…