相关论文: Honesty in Causal Forests: When It Helps and When …

We analyze the trade-off between model complexity and accuracy for random forests by breaking the trees up into individual classification rules and selecting a subset of them. We show experimentally that already a few rules are sufficient…

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Inferring individualised treatment effects from observational data can unlock the potential for targeted interventions. It is, however, hard to infer these effects from observational data. One major problem that can arise is covariate shift…

Researchers often hold the belief that random forests are "the cure to the world's ills" (Bickel, 2010). But how exactly do they achieve this? Focused on the recently introduced causal forests (Athey and Imbens, 2016; Wager and Athey,…

In high-stakes domains like healthcare, users often expect that sharing personal information with machine learning systems will yield tangible benefits, such as more accurate diagnoses and clearer explanations of contributing factors.…

Machine learning algorithms in socially sensitive domains (e.g., credit decisions) often focus on equalizing predictive outcomes. However, satisfying these metrics does not guarantee that models use the same reasoning for different groups.…

While recent years have witnessed the emergence of various explainable methods in machine learning, to what degree the explanations really represent the reasoning process behind the model prediction -- namely, the faithfulness of…

Causal machine learning tools are beginning to see use in real-world policy evaluation tasks to flexibly estimate treatment effects. One issue with these methods is that the machine learning models used are generally black boxes, i.e.,…

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…

Eliminating the effect of confounding in observational studies typically involves fitting a model for an outcome adjusted for covariates. When, as often, these covariates are high-dimensional, this necessitates the use of sparse estimators…

Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical settings and policy-making. Beyond the gold-standard…

Many popular methods for building confidence intervals on causal effects under high-dimensional confounding require strong "ultra-sparsity" assumptions that may be difficult to validate in practice. To alleviate this difficulty, we here…

In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this…

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to 'mine' variables of interest…

A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature…

Individuals do not respond uniformly to treatments, events, or interventions. Sociologists routinely partition samples into subgroups to explore how the effects of treatments vary by covariates like race, gender, and socioeconomic status.…

Over the past few decades, statistical methods for causal inference have made impressive strides, enabling progress across a range of scientific fields. However, much of this methodological development has been confined to individual…

Ensuring fairness of machine learning systems is a human-in-the-loop process. It relies on developers, users, and the general public to identify fairness problems and make improvements. To facilitate the process we need effective, unbiased,…

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects has become increasingly important in many fields and life and death decisions are now based on these estimates: for example, selecting a personalized course of medical treatment. Recently, a…