相关论文: Honesty in Causal Forests: When It Helps and When …

Causal machine learning methods which flexibly generate heterogeneous treatment effect estimates could be very useful tools for governments trying to make and implement policy. However, as the critical artificial intelligence literature has…

Evaluations often inform future program implementation decisions. However, the implementation context may differ, sometimes substantially, from the evaluation study context. This difference leads to uncertainty regarding the relevance of…

This paper develops new tools to quantify uncertainty in optimal decision making and to gain insight into which variables one should collect information about given the potential cost of measuring a large number of variables. We investigate…

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Interpretability and transparency are essential for incorporating causal effect models from observational data into policy decision-making. They can provide trust for the model in the absence of ground truth labels to evaluate the accuracy…

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be…

Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops estimation and inference procedures for multiple treatment…

How do we learn from biased data? Historical datasets often reflect historical prejudices; sensitive or protected attributes may affect the observed treatments and outcomes. Classification algorithms tasked with predicting outcomes…

In the social and health sciences, researchers often make causal inferences using sensitive variables. These researchers, as well as the data holders themselves, may be ethically and perhaps legally obligated to protect the confidentiality…

Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…

Causal inference is capable of estimating the treatment effect (i.e., the causal effect of treatment on the outcome) to benefit the decision making in various domains. One fundamental challenge in this research is that the treatment…

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Most approaches in algorithmic fairness constrain machine learning methods so the resulting predictions satisfy one of several intuitive notions of fairness. While this may help private companies comply with non-discrimination laws or avoid…

Machine learning methods for estimating treatment effect heterogeneity promise greater flexibility than existing methods that test a few pre-specified hypotheses. However, one problem these methods can have is that it can be challenging to…

Machine learning models in safety-critical settings like healthcare are often blackboxes: they contain a large number of parameters which are not transparent to users. Post-hoc explainability methods where a simple, human-interpretable…

Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic…

This methodological review examines the use of the causal forest method by applied researchers across 133 peer-reviewed papers. It shows that the emerging best practice relies heavily on the approach and tools created by the original…

Causal inference has numerous real-world applications in many domains, such as health care, marketing, political science, and online advertising. Treatment effect estimation, a fundamental problem in causal inference, has been extensively…

Practitioners making decisions based on causal effects typically ignore structural uncertainty. We analyze when this uncertainty is consequential enough to warrant methodological solutions (Bayesian model averaging over competing causal…

We consider the problem of fitting a linear model to data held by individuals who are concerned about their privacy. Incentivizing most players to truthfully report their data to the analyst constrains our design to mechanisms that provide…